872
FXUS62 KJAX 260546
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1246 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACT
AREAS EACH MORNING: LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY, NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FL.
- COLD WEATHER RETURNS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. INLAND FREEZES
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND.
- MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1022
MILLIBARS) CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FL PANHANDLE COAST IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. MEANWHILE, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (1006
MILLIBARS) WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THIS FRONT EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, AND NORTH CAROLINA'S OUTER BANKS. ALOFT...DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN
BETWEEN TROUGHING THAT WAS DEPARTING COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND
RIDGING THAT WAS CENTERED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF. MEANWHILE, SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WAS
MIGRATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING PWATS BELOW 1 INCH ACROSS OUR
REGION, WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AREA-WIDE. LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 06Z.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT, REACHING THE FL PENINSULA BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
MIGRATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THIS
EVENING, REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS INDUCED WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WITH THIS WAVE PIVOTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL EMERGE OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST LATER TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FL
BIG BEND COAST OVERNIGHT, WITH THIS FOG AND LOW STRATUS
EXPANDING INLAND TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY BE ADVECTED EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL TOWARDS OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS, MAINLY ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS WILL THEN ERODE
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS CLOUDS
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR SKIES WITHIN THE DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A DRY AIR
MASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT LOWER 70S FOR COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN IT WILL AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS PWATS SUBTLY INCREASE TO ABOVE 1 INCH,
IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THE GRADUALLY TIGHTENING LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION FOR ALL BUT NORTH CENTRAL FL
OVERNIGHT, WHERE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS FROM GAINESVILLE SOUTHWARD. A PERSISTENT
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE OF 5- 10 MPH WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS IN
THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (ALBERTA CLIPPER) EXITS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS AND WEST FL COAST WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC AND PASS OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS AND RAISING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS TO 1.0-1.2 INCHES
OR NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN MORE
LOW LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS SATURDAY LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AS HIGHS REACH THE
UPPER 70S EXCEPT FOR LOW/MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.
THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THANKS TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOMING CALM
INLAND AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.
SUNDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FL. A NEW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST FROM NEW ENGLAND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SSW INTO THE FL PENINSULA. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO AROUND 80F DEGREES, ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW RECORD
HIGH VALUES. LOW LEVEL CUMULUS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL MAKE
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER THE FOG LIFTS SUNDAY MID TO LATE
MORNING DUE TO WEAK WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND DENSE FOG MAY
PERSIST WELL AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE FULLY LIFTING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MONDAY, A TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR
AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AWAY INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVES
WELL EAST OF THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE LOWER 80S.
TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO SOUTHERN FL
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNDER
THINNING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHILL TO THE AIR AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
REACH INTO THE LOW 50S OVER SE GA AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVER MOST
OF NE FL TO AROUND 60F OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL. THE COLDER
AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING AN INLAND
FREEZE AND FROST TO THE AREA, WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING CLOSE TO
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE LOW 20S OVER SE GA AND MID
20S OVER INLAND NE FL. IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO NUDGE
DOWN LOW TEMPERATURES, ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN TO BRING ABOUT
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS INLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING, HELPING TO DEEPEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS
INTO THURSDAY OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL
INLAND FREEZE/FROST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS TO
LOW 60S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND AROUND 60F THURSDAY WITH
LOW/MID 60S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FL BIG BEND COAST OVERNIGHT, WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG
ADVECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-75 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 301
CORRIDORS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES AT VQQ SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR BY
09Z, WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AT GNV TOWARDS 10Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THEN PREVAILING AFTER 11Z, WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF PATCHY RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE
TOWARDS OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TO LOW TO
INDICATE ANY PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS AT JAX, CRG,
SGJ, AND SSI AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT
THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 15Z FRIDAY. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARE
THEN LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 16Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARDS
19Z/20Z FRIDAY, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS. WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION LEVELS AS
THIS STORM SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND,
ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS, MAINLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING
TO WESTERLY ON MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION,
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO CAUTION LEVELS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
THEN STRENGTHENING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS
OUR AREA BY NEW YEAR'S EVE, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA: LOW TODAY, MODERATE ON SAT & SUN
NORTHEAST FL: LOW TODAY, MODERATE ON SAT& SUN
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GOOD
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT BREEZIER WESTERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL CREATE PATCHY AREAS
OF HIGH VALUES NORTH OF US82. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY AND THEN OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY. FAIR TO GOOD
DISPERSIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON
SUNDAY AREA WIDE DUE TO WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH
MINRH VALUES FALLING BELOW CRITICAL VALUES AWAY FROM THE COAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
I-75 CORRIDOR INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING AND EACH
SUBSEQUENT EARLY MORNING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE FOG COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING,
THEN AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 78 57 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 73 58 72 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 79 56 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 77 58 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 79 56 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 79 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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