107
FXUS62 KJAX 261338
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LATE NIGHT / EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IMPACT AREAS: INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
- MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
- COLD WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. INLAND FREEZES LIKELY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
UPDATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LINGERING PATCHY
FOG INLAND AREAS. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TODAY WITH JUST SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMPS AND SKY COVER. SHOULD AGAIN BE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS UP TO ABOUT
5-15 MPH TODAY. LOOKING AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH (ALBERTA CLIPPER) EXITS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS AND WEST FL COAST WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH. A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC AND PASS OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS
AND RAISING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS TO 1.0-1.2 INCHES OR NEAR
THE 75TH PERCENTILE ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN MORE LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS SATURDAY LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S EXCEPT
FOR LOW/MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.
THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THANKS TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOMING CALM INLAND AFTER
SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER
50S AT THE COAST.
SUNDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FL. A NEW HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BUILD SOUTH AND EAST FROM NEW ENGLAND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SSW INTO THE FL PENINSULA.
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST TO AROUND 80F DEGREES,
ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGH VALUES. LOW LEVEL CUMULUS AND
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER THE FOG
LIFTS SUNDAY MID TO LATE MORNING DUE TO WEAK WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST WELL AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE FULLY LIFTING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MONDAY, A TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR AREA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT, SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS AWAY INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BOOST HIGHS TO
NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE LOWER 80S.
TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO SOUTHERN FL
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNDER THINNING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
A CHILL TO THE AIR AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE LOW 50S OVER
SE GA AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVER MOST OF NE FL TO AROUND 60F OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL. THE COLDER AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING AN INLAND FREEZE AND FROST TO THE AREA, WITH WIND CHILLS
FALLING CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE LOW 20S OVER
SE GA AND MID 20S OVER INLAND NE FL. IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
NUDGE DOWN LOW TEMPERATURES, ENOUGH WIND MAY REMAIN TO BRING ABOUT
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS INLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING, HELPING TO DEEPEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS INTO
THURSDAY OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
REGION WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL INLAND
FREEZE/FROST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS TO LOW 60S OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL AND AROUND 60F THURSDAY WITH LOW/MID 60S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SITUATED ALONG AND WEST OF THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 AND INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDORS DURING THE EARLY TO MID-
MORNING HOURS TODAY. LIFR CONDITIONS AT VQQ SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 12Z, WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY 14Z. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES AT
GNV SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 13Z, WITH IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THEREAFTER, ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TOWARDS
14Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE REMAINDER OF THE
TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF PATCHY RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS OR
JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TO LOW TO INDICATE ANY
PREVAILING OR TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS AT JAX, CRG, SGJ, AND SSI AT
THIS TIME. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARE THEN LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED INITIALLY
AT VQQ TOWARDS 05Z, WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AFTER 06Z. IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 10Z
SATURDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 13Z, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10
KNOTS BY 16Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE SSI
AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARDS 19Z/20Z FRIDAY, SHIFTING SURFACE
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET ON
FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO
CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS OUR AREA BY
NEW YEAR'S EVE, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA: LOW TODAY, MODERATE ON SAT & SUN
NORTHEAST FL: LOW TODAY, MODERATE ON SAT& SUN
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GOOD DISPERSIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT BREEZIER WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL CREATE PATCHY AREAS OF HIGH VALUES
NORTH OF US82. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY AND THEN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY. FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY AREA WIDE DUE TO
WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH MINRH VALUES FALLING BELOW CRITICAL
VALUES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND I-75 CORRIDOR
INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING AND EACH SUBSEQUENT EARLY
MORNING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE. AREAS
OF FOG WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING, THEN AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 77 57 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 74 58 72 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 78 56 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 76 58 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 78 56 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 78 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page