710
FXUS62 KJAX 261804
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
104 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LATE NIGHT / EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IMPACT AREAS: INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
- MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
- COLD WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. INLAND FREEZES LIKELY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MEAN LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. AT
THE SFC, THE 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA INTO TONIGHT, ENSURING A LIGHT BUT
STEADY WEST OR SOUTHWEST FLOW. FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH PWATS INITIALLY JUST BELOW 1 INCH, INCREASING TO
ABOUT 1.1 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF TN AND THE CAROLINAS AND SO REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND AL LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO LOCALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY, WILL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH MORE STRATUS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THIS ADDED MOISTURE AND THE LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT, POTENTIALLY BECOMING DENSE. FIRST THOUGHTS ABOUT THE
DENSE FOG POSSIBILITY IS THE WIND AND STABILITY FACTORS SUGGEST
MORE OF STRATUS CLOUDS THAN A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT, AT
LEAST AT THIS TIME. OVERALL, THE BETTER CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
WILL BE TOWARD INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AREAS AND
CLOSER TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR. LOOKING AT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH
THE MOISTURE, WE CAN'T RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES COMING IN FROM
THE WEST, WITH THE HREF PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST A TRACE IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE FROM INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AREA AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.
TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLEASANT IN THE 75-80 DEGREE
RANGE WITH MAINLY LIGHT WEST FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE 50S WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY HINDERING FURTHER
COOLING AFTER ABOUT 2 AM TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF THE NORTH MAINTAINING THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENTS
OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH MORE DENSE AREAS OF FOG FORMING
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTING INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA ON SUNDAY. UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN TOUCHING UPON THE LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TOP UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION ON
MONDAY, AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH INITIALLY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES, DRY WEATHER, AND CLEARING SKIES
SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING LEVELS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, LOW STRATUS
CEILINGS ARE THEN LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED INITIALLY AT GNV AND VQQ BY ABOUT
05Z-07Z, WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AFTER 06Z-07Z. IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS BY 10Z SATURDAY.
WE SEE THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR AFTER 15Z, EXCEPT FOR GNV
AND VQQ IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER LONGER. MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL
BE AROUND AT 18Z SATURDAY. SFC WINDS, WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
5-10 KNOTS. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY NEAR THE SSI
AND SGJ TERMINALS TOWARDS 19Z/20Z, SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHERLY
BRIEFLY. WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO
CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS OUR AREA BY
NEW YEAR'S EVE, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY LOW RISK REST OF TODAY WITH SURF NEAR
1-2 FT, WITH SOME INCREASED RISK INTO MODERATE RANGE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TODAY, WHICH WILL YIELD A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND THE
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY FEATURING CHANCES FOR RAIN. A
DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, STARTING ON
TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY 12/29 ACROSS NORTHEAST FL,
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CURRENT RECORDS STANDING AT:
DECEMBER 29TH:
KJAX: 83/2015
KGNV: 82/2021
KCRG: 82/2021
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 56 76 57 75 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 56 73 58 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 56 76 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 56 76 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 55 77 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 54 76 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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