565
FXUS62 KJAX 270125
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
825 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LATE NIGHT / EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IMPACT AREAS: INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND
- MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
- COLD WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. INLAND FREEZES LIKELY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
UPDATE
HAVE EXPANDED AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NE FL
WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER MARION COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE. LOCAL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL SEND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF COAST WITH ENOUGH WIND TO
MAINLY KEEP LOW STRATUS CLOUDS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATE TONIGHT, BUT LOCAL VISIBILITY MAY LOWER BELOW A MILE THE
FURTHER INLAND YOU GO AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
50S.
ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AFTER LOW STRATUS LIFTS TO A CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD AND YIELDS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH WESTERLY LIGHT WINDS 8-12 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
MEAN LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. AT
THE SFC, THE 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA INTO TONIGHT, ENSURING A LIGHT BUT
STEADY WEST OR SOUTHWEST FLOW. FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH PWATS INITIALLY JUST BELOW 1 INCH, INCREASING TO
ABOUT 1.1 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF TN AND THE CAROLINAS AND SO REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND AL LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO LOCALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY, WILL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH MORE STRATUS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THIS ADDED MOISTURE AND THE LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT,
POTENTIALLY BECOMING DENSE. FIRST THOUGHTS ABOUT THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBILITY IS THE WIND AND STABILITY FACTORS SUGGEST MORE OF
STRATUS CLOUDS THAN A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT, AT LEAST AT THIS
TIME. OVERALL, THE BETTER CHANCES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE TOWARD
INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AREAS AND CLOSER TO THE I-75
CORRIDOR. LOOKING AT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION,
WE CAN'T RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES COMING IN FROM THE WEST, WITH THE
HREF PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST A TRACE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FROM INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT.
TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLEASANT AROUND THE 75-80 DEGREE
RANGE WITH MAINLY LIGHT WEST FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN
THE 50S WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY HINDERING FURTHER COOLING AFTER ABOUT
2 AM TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF THE NORTH MAINTAINING THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENTS
OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH MORE DENSE AREAS OF FOG FORMING
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTING INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA ON SUNDAY. UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND EVEN TOUCHING UPON THE LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TOP UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION ON
MONDAY, AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH INITIALLY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES, DRY WEATHER, AND CLEARING SKIES
SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING LEVELS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EARLY EVENING WILL TREND TO IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
AND FOG BY AROUND 06Z AS VERY LIGHT WEST WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS SENDS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS
EAST ACROSS OVER THE NORTHEAST FL TAF SITES TONIGHT FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TRANSITIONING INTO AN ADVECTION
FOG AND LOW STRATUS SET UP. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVELS BY 05Z
AT GNV/VQQ AND MIGRATE EAST TO THE COAST BY 09Z WITH RESTRICTIONS
FOR VLIFR AT GNV/VQQ BETWEEN 09-13Z DUE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AS
CEILINGS LOWER TO THE GROUND INLAND AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND WESTERLY 3-5 KNOTS.
SATURDAY, THE IFR LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BLANKETING THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z, THEN LIFT TO VFR AT THE COAST BY 17Z AND INLAND BY 19Z.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 6-10 KNOTS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO
CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY MONDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS TOWARDS OUR AREA BY
NEW YEAR'S EVE, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE SATURDAY
NE FL MODERATE SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY, WHICH WILL YIELD A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND THE DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY FEATURING CHANCES FOR RAIN. A DRY AND
COOLER AIR MASS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, STARTING ON TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY 12/29 ACROSS NORTHEAST FL, RECORD
HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CURRENT RECORDS STANDING AT:
DECEMBER 29TH: KJAX: 83/2015 KGNV: 82/2021 KCRG: 82/2021
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 56 77 57 75 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 56 74 58 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 56 78 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 56 76 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 55 78 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 54 77 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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