062
FXUS62 KJAX 271102
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
602 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH
MONDAY.
- MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
- SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. INLAND
FREEZE LIKELY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZES POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
POTENTIAL FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1019
MILLIBARS) SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF. MEANWHILE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE (1009 MILLIBARS) WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR NORTH CAROLINA'S OUTER BANKS.
ALOFT...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF,
WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PIVOTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO CREATE DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION. LATEST GOES- EAST DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OUR AIR MASS IS SLOWLY
MOISTENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH PWAT VALUES NOW JUST ABOVE
1 INCH FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR, WHILE VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WERE CLOSER
TO 0.75 INCHES. THIS MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR A
DECK OF THICKENING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE STATE OF GEORGIA, WHILE LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG
WERE PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ACROSS THE
U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA, AND THIS WAS KEEPING A LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
IN PLACE AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS BREEZE, IN COMBINATION WITH
INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA, WAS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
THROUGHOUT OUR REGION AT 06Z.
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT, FEATURING STACKED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND THE FL PENINSULA AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE PLAINS
STATES. THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN AS DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH
WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY, AS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW SUN ANGLE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND FOG TO LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHILE MID-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN STUBBORN OVER THE SKIES OF SOUTHEAST GA INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TODAY BENEATH THIS CLOUD COVER, A SUBSIDENT WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE RAINFALL. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUD
COVER BREAKS UP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH THE LOWER
80S. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG AREA BEACHES UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL ADD HUMIDITY TO THE ONGOING
WARM SPELL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ONSHORE FROM THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS LATER THIS
EVENING, WITH THESE LOW CLOUDS AND LIKELY DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO LOOSEN
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FL
PENINSULA, WITH CALM WINDS LIKELY RESULTING IN DENSE FOG
FORMATION BY THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT COULD
EXTEND INTO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL
TO THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE AREA-WIDE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY, STRONG RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXTENDS SOUTH
ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM MAINE INTO NORTHERN FL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DESCEND SOUTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SSW INTO THE FL PENINSULA.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F
DEGREES. LOW LEVEL CUMULUS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL MAKE FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER FOG SLOWLY LIFTS SUNDAY MID TO LATE
MORNING DUE TO WEAK WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK SEABREEZE
WILL BRING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THIS FEATURE
WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE FLOW OFF THE GULF COAST, BUT
WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST FOG ELEVATED INTO LOW STRATUS. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
MONDAY, THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY, CARVING A DEEPER TROUGH
A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BE DEPRIVED OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF AND SHOWERS WILL WITHER IN COVERAGE AS THE NEAR THE SE GA
COAST WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WILL BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN
THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNDER
THINNING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION AS
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SURGES SOUTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND A
STRONG OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC BRINGING A CHILL TO
THE AIR AS HIGHS STRUGGLE RISE OUT OF THE 40S INTO THE LOW 50S
OVER SE GA AND REMAIN IN THE 50S OVER NE FL.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE COLDER AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL USHER
IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ALL ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR THE THE IMMEDIATE NE FL COAST STAYING IN THE MID 30S WITH
NOW A POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE FOR FAR INLAND SE GA WHERE LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE MID 20S AND MID TO UPPER 20S NW OF HIGHWAY 301 OVER
NE FL. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT WINDS 5-8 MPH AND COLD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA, WHICH MAY SPARE THE IMMEDIATE NE FL COAST. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD AND
WARRANT PROTECTING YOURSELF FROM THE COLD BY WEARING MULTIPLE
WARM LAYERS, GLOVES, A WARM HAT, AND SCARF AS WELL AS KEEPING
YOUR PETS INDOORS AND PLANTS PROTECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SHORTWAVES WILL REINFORCE DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION WITH BELOW NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (UPPER
50S/LOW 60S) AND LOW TEMPERATURES (LOW/MID 30S) WITH INLAND
LIGHT FREEZES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH BRISK WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST IS REPLACED BY
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WEEKEND, THERE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AS WELL AS
THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES. A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW AND
WARM ADVECTION WOULD SUPPORT LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL WHILE A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD SUPPORT LOWS BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF JACKSONVILLE. FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO
15-20 PERCENT OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT THE NORTHEAST FL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15Z. MEANWHILE, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA WILL PROVIDE VFR CEILINGS OF 4,000 -
5,000 FEET AT SSI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. IFR CEILINGS OF
500-900 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING, LEAVING BEHIND
VFR CEILINGS OF 4,000-5,000 FEET DUE TO STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
COVER. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ARE
FORECAST AFTER 04Z TONIGHT, WITH IMPACTS BEGINNING AT GNV AND
VQQ AND THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE DUVAL COUNTY
TERMINALS, SGJ, AND SSI AFTER 08Z SUNDAY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z, THUS
ALLOWING FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY, BECOMING POSITIONED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BY THIS EVENING. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
OFFSHORE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING ON MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY ON MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION.
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS EARLY ON MONDAY EVENING
BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE SUNDAY
NE FL MODERATE SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH TODAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA, VERY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-5 MPH WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY DUE TO A WEAK ATLANTIC SEABREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WEAK SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
CREATE LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SUNDAY AREA WIDE. BREEZIER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ELEVATING WINDS 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY. BUT, A MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WEST OF THE REGION. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL LOWER WITH
MINRH VALUES TO BELOW CRITICAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
I-75 CORRIDOR INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING AND EACH
SUBSEQUENT EARLY MORNING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE FOG COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE.
CLIMATE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY 12/29 ACROSS NORTHEAST FL,
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CURRENT RECORDS STANDING AT:
DECEMBER 29TH: KJAX: 83/2015 KGNV: 82/2021 KCRG: 82/2021
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 78 57 77 56 / 0 0 10 0
SSI 75 57 71 56 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 78 58 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 76 60 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 78 58 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 77 57 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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