770
FXUS62 KJAX 271758
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1258 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH
MONDAY
- MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
- COLD WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK. INLAND FREEZES LIKELY ON
TUESDAY - THURSDAY NIGHTS. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH STACKED RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. PERSISTENT LOW-MID
STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER THE AREA GRADUALLY DETERIORATES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S, AND A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP COULD
REACH 80. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS LATER THIS
EVENING, WITH THESE LOW CLOUDS AND LIKELY DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO LOOSEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA, WITH CALM WINDS
LIKELY RESULTING IN DENSE FOG FORMATION BY THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. LOWS
WILL ONLY FALL TO THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE AREA-WIDE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN EVEN MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD DAY ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL CUMULUS
AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER
FOG SLOWLY LIFTS SUNDAY MID TO LATE MORNING DUE TO WEAK WINDS
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL BRING IN MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS WELL. A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
PSEUDO WARM FRONT STARTS TO FORM AND LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH GIVEN THE OVERALL DRY SPELL HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON, EXCEPT SOME LOW 70S BY
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO
PICK UP A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR GA WHERE
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE FLOW OFF THE GULF
COAST, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WINDS PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS THESE WINDS COULD KEEP MOST FOG ELEVATED INTO LOW STRATUS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
MONDAY, POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES, PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED HEAD OF THE FRONT, GENERALLY AROUND 10-20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST. AS IS WHAT TENDS TO OCCUR
NEAR/OVER OUR AREA DURING THE COOL SEASON, MOST OF THE MORE
INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN APPROACHING THE AREA
AND ALSO LAG BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. PWATS ALSO ONLY INCREASE TO
AROUND THE 1.2-1.3 INCH RANGE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
THEREFORE, JUST EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND GA
AND TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MONDAY BEFORE THESE CHANCES DROP OFF FOR SOUTH AND EAST
AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DESPITE THE LACKLUSTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES, THIS WILL
STILL BE QUITE THE POTENT FRONT, WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
SPILLING INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 MONDAY BEFORE CRASHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30S
TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY FROST
POTENTIAL, THOUGH ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TUESDAY AND EVEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL
AND A BIT BREEZY AS THIS AIRMASS SETTLES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS GENERALLY WEST OF THE REGION. WEAKENING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND HARD FREEZES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THIS POTENTIAL IN PLACE EVEN ALL THE
WAY TO THE COASTS AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. WITH THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES, EVEN JUST A LIGHT AMOUNT A WIND COULD ALSO WARRANT A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME OR MOST AREAS.
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKING TO REMAIN GENERALLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. GUIDANCE DOES START TO DIVERGE MORE
THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO BOTH HOW LONG AND TO WHAT EXTENT UPPER TROUGHING
ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION, AS WELL AS HOW THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME WILL BE FOR DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WITH THE COOLER TEMPS
TRENDING UPWARD A BIT. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INLAND EACH MORNING WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT TO THE
EXTENT AS WHAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
A MVFR/VFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK LINGERS OVER THE NE FL TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 21Z. WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
BETWEEN 03Z-13Z AND SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR GNV AND VQQ WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO
IFR/LIFR.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. WEST- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE MONDAY, NE FL MODERATE MONDAY
FIRE WEATHER
...AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION SUNDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY, PERSISTING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL UNFORTUNATELY RESULT IN ONLY FAIR DISPERSIONS TODAY AND
MORE AREAS OF POOR/LOW DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. A POTENT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RETURN BREEZIER FLOW AND THEREFORE GOOD TO BORDERLINE HIGH
DISPERSIONS AS WELL AS ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY INTO TUESDAY AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. MINRH VALUES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S OF PERCENT INLAND TUESDAY, AND COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15MPH WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE REGION AT BORDERLINE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER HEADLINES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND I-75 CORRIDOR INTO NORTH
CENTRAL FL EARLY SUNDAY & MONDAY MORNINGS. THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 57 76 56 74 / 0 10 0 30
SSI 58 71 57 74 / 0 0 0 20
JAX 58 77 56 80 / 0 0 0 20
SGJ 59 76 56 79 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 57 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 20
OCF 56 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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