477
FXUS62 KJAX 280028
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
728 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH
MONDAY
- MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
- COLD WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK. INLAND FREEZES LIKELY ON
TUESDAY - THURSDAY NIGHTS. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS
AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. DID SOME
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SPREAD THE FOG A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
FACT THAT THIS IS MORE OF ADVECTION FOG EVENT MAKES IT A LITTLE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE COUNTIES IN AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DATA POINT TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND AND
POSSIBLY INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA (WHERE THE COMBO OF LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS AND LOW CIGS ARE MORE PRONE) SO WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA AND LATEST GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR ANY
ADVISORY ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH STACKED RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. PERSISTENT LOW-MID
STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER THE AREA GRADUALLY DETERIORATES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S, AND A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP COULD
REACH 80. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS LATER THIS
EVENING, WITH THESE LOW CLOUDS AND LIKELY DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO LOOSEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA, WITH CALM WINDS
LIKELY RESULTING IN DENSE FOG FORMATION BY THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. LOWS
WILL ONLY FALL TO THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE AREA-WIDE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN EVEN MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD DAY ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL CUMULUS
AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER FOG
SLOWLY LIFTS SUNDAY MID TO LATE MORNING DUE TO WEAK WINDS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL BRING IN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS BY THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS WELL. A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A PSEUDO WARM FRONT STARTS TO FORM AND
LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH GIVEN THE OVERALL
DRY SPELL HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON, EXCEPT SOME LOW
70S BY THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO
PICK UP A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR GA WHERE
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE FLOW OFF THE GULF
COAST, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WINDS PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS THESE WINDS COULD KEEP MOST FOG ELEVATED INTO LOW STRATUS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
MONDAY, POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES, PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED HEAD OF THE FRONT, GENERALLY AROUND 10-20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST. AS IS WHAT TENDS TO OCCUR
NEAR/OVER OUR AREA DURING THE COOL SEASON, MOST OF THE MORE
INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN APPROACHING THE AREA
AND ALSO LAG BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. PWATS ALSO ONLY INCREASE TO
AROUND THE 1.2-1.3 INCH RANGE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
THEREFORE, JUST EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND GA
AND TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MONDAY BEFORE THESE CHANCES DROP OFF FOR SOUTH AND EAST
AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DESPITE THE LACKLUSTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES, THIS WILL
STILL BE QUITE THE POTENT FRONT, WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
SPILLING INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 MONDAY BEFORE CRASHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30S
TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY FROST
POTENTIAL, THOUGH ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TUESDAY AND EVEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL
AND A BIT BREEZY AS THIS AIRMASS SETTLES IN AND HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS GENERALLY WEST OF THE REGION. WEAKENING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT AND HARD FREEZES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THIS POTENTIAL IN PLACE EVEN ALL THE
WAY TO THE COASTS AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. WITH THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES, EVEN JUST A LIGHT AMOUNT A WIND COULD ALSO WARRANT A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME OR MOST AREAS.
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKING TO REMAIN GENERALLY
WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. GUIDANCE DOES START TO DIVERGE MORE
THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, MAINLY
WITH RESPECT TO BOTH HOW LONG AND TO WHAT EXTENT UPPER TROUGHING
ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION, AS WELL AS HOW THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME WILL BE FOR DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WITH THE COOLER TEMPS
TRENDING UPWARD A BIT. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INLAND EACH MORNING WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT TO THE
EXTENT AS WHAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS, CIGS FROM AROUND 3000-4500
FT, LINGER OVER THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIG AROUND IN THE 00Z-05Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO
NE BETWEEN 05Z-13Z AND SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SSI MAY
ESCAPE MOST OF THE LOWEST OF CLOUD DECKS BELOW 1 KFT, BUT MAY
NEAR THIS TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT. SOME DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY FOR GNV AND VQQ WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO LIFR.
THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE LIFTING SUNDAY MORNING TO MVFR NEAR
OR AFTER 15Z AND THEN PROBABLY LIFTING TO VFR CLOUDS AROUND THE
16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS INITIALLY WILL DROP
TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ABOUT 5 KT. SEA BREEZE
MAY PUSH THROUGH SGJ AND SSI NEAR AND AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
STRENGTHEN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. WEST- NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
SUNDAY, PERSISTING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL UNFORTUNATELY RESULT IN ONLY FAIR DISPERSIONS TODAY AND
MORE AREAS OF POOR/LOW DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. A POTENT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RETURN BREEZIER FLOW AND THEREFORE GOOD TO BORDERLINE HIGH
DISPERSIONS AS WELL AS ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY INTO TUESDAY AND MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. MINRH VALUES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S OF PERCENT INLAND TUESDAY, AND COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15MPH WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE REGION AT BORDERLINE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER HEADLINES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND I-75 CORRIDOR INTO NORTH
CENTRAL FL EARLY SUNDAY & MONDAY MORNINGS. THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 76 56 74 / 0 10 0 30
SSI 58 72 57 74 / 0 0 0 20
JAX 58 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 20
SGJ 60 75 56 79 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 58 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 20
OCF 57 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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