800
FXUS62 KJAX 280522
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1222 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY AROUND
MILE OR LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCES ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY
- MARINE AND COASTAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
- COLDER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK. INLAND FREEZE LIKELY ON MON NIGHT
AND TUE NIGHT. LOW WIND CHILL VALUES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL INLAND
LIGHT FREEZES WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL WED NIGHT - FRI NIGHT
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY...DENSE FOG HAS ALREADY STARTED TO PUSH INTO INLAND SE GA AND
THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLAND NE FL EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE AND HAVE
POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10AM. THIS DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO ADVECT AND EXPAND EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAVE POSTED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION STARTING AT 1AM AS WELL. DENSE FOG SHOULD
SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 5 MPH IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A WEAK EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE
DAYTIME HEATING, BUT OVERALL AIR MASS REMAINS TOO DRY AND RAINFALL
CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10%.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SINKS SOUTH OF THE REGION AS NEXT COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SE US STATES. THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
OFF THE NE GULF WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS INLAND NE FL AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
REST OF NE FL AND MOST OF SE GA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES APPEAR TO BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. LOW TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN WARM, MOIST (PWATS IN THE 1.2" TO 1.3"
RANGE) GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. THE WARM AIR WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE LOWER
80S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS AWAY TOWARDS THE EAST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS WINDS RANGE FROM
10-20 MPH, WHILE SOME LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH.
ADDITIONALLY, COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE GA AND TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN NE FL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA BY THE
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS SE GA AND
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO TUESDAY.
TUESDAY, COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA AS
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS TO THE SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BRING IN COLD AIR INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL SEE A 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE IN DAYTIME HIGHS FROM MONDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 50S, WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL FL
COUNTIES. BY THE EVENING HOURS, NEAR CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE UPPER 20S, WITH LOWER 30S ALONG NORTH CENTRAL FL AND MID 30S
ALONG THE COAST. THIS COULD WARRANT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE
LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS TUESDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, RISING TO TO 60S ON FRIDAY, AND FINALLY THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S,
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL AS NEAR CALM WINDS
DEVELOP.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE NEXT SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A TROUGH TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE AREA BY LATER THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
LIFR CONDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT VQQ, WITH IFR CONDS AT GNV AND
EXPECT THE LIFR/IFR CONDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES IN THE 06-12Z
TIME FRAME WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE (12-13Z) BEFORE
CIGS AND VSBYS BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR CONDS IN THE 15-18Z
TIME FRAME WITH LIGHT SW WINDS ONLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH EARLY
DEVELOPMENT AT GNV/VQQ IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME, WHILE THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL INTO THE NEXT TAF
PACKAGE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND STRENGTHEN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE SUNDAY
NE FL MODERATE SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER
AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION TODAY...
LOW DAYTIME MIN RH OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON TUESDAY...
LOW DAYTIME MIN RH AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION. POOR/LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TODAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME BREEZY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
ALLOWING FOR GOOD TO BORDERLINE HIGH DISPERSIONS TO DEVELOP IN
ADDITION TO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION. MINRH VALUES DROP INTO THE
LOW 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND TUESDAY, AND COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15MPH WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE REGION AT BORDERLINE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER HEADLINES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS TODAY. PATCHY TO
WIDESPREAD FOG ON MONDAY MORNING, WITH DENSER FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND I-75 CORRIDOR INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL.
CLIMATE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY 12/29 ACROSS NORTHEAST FL, RECORD
HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CURRENT RECORDS STANDING AT:
DECEMBER 29TH: KJAX: 83/2015 KGNV: 82/2021 KCRG: 82/2021
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 77 57 71 31 / 10 10 40 0
SSI 70 57 73 37 / 10 0 30 0
JAX 78 57 79 36 / 10 0 20 0
SGJ 76 56 77 41 / 10 10 10 10
GNV 79 56 79 38 / 10 0 10 0
OCF 79 55 77 39 / 10 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-
030-031-035-120-136-140-220-236-240-322-340-422-522.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ024-038-
124-125-132-137-138-225-232-233-237-325-333-425-433-533-
633.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132-149-
162-163-250-350-364.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ133>136-
151>154-165-166-264.
MARINE...NONE.
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