252
FXUS62 KJAX 290038
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
738 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY AROUND MILE OR
LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCES ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
- COLDER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEK. FREEZE WATCH MON NIGHT TUE MORN.
WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND LOW WIND CHILLS TUE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL INLAND
LIGHT FREEZES WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL WED NIGHT - THU NIGHT
UPDATE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ALONG COASTAL FLAGLER AND
COASTAL ST. JOHNS COUNTIES THROUGH 11PM TONIGHT AS SEA FOG
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW
STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG
INLAND LOCATIONS, PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARDS SUNRISE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE SE
US. DEEP SW FLOW HAS USHERED IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMTH ACROSS
THE REGION. LINGERING STRATUS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 70S TO POTENTIALLY 80. THE MOIST LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW OFF THE NE GULF WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
DENSE FOG BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS INLAND NE FL AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL AND MOST OF SE GA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN
MAINLY FOR INLAND NE FL. LOW TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER FOGGY START TO THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR THIS
FOG WILL OVER INTERIOR PORTION OF SE GA, WHERE WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA MONDAY, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW AND
BEST LIFT IS WELL TO NORTH, SO A DISSIPATING LINE OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSAGE LOCALLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE
NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A 30 TO 40
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECTING TOO MUCH WIND
FOR FROST POTENTIAL, BUT A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND
SE GA.
A SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS REGION TUESDAY. WHILE
THIS BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH DRY, IT WILL PROVIDE ADDED CLOUD
COVERAGE REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL EXTEND ACROSS AREA FROM CENTER TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES, WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOWS FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND
ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHTER WINDS, FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE HIGH WILL CENTER OVER THE GULF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL GLANCE BY TO THE NORTH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE, BUT BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH NEAR
NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY. A WIDESPREAD INLAND FROST IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A LIGHT INLAND FREEZE.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN TREND TOWARD
ABOVE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEA FOG
MOVING INLAND IS ALREADY IMPACTING SGJ EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF DENSE FOG AND POTENTIAL LIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE INLAND TAF SITES MAINLY BEGINNING AROUND 03-07Z. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY 13Z, WITH ELEVATED WINDS, AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS
BEGINNING ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY 16Z/17Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO
CAUTION LEVELS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE MONDAY
NE FL MODERATE MONDAY
FIRE WEATHER
AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS MONDAY AND THURSDAY...
MINRH VALUES IN THE 20S INLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING
WEATHER FEATURE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF AND AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER NE FL. A FREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND
SE GA ON MONDAY NIGHT. A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH FROST.
CLIMATE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY 12/29 ACROSS NORTHEAST FL, RECORD
HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CURRENT RECORDS STANDING AT:
DECEMBER 29TH: KJAX: 83/2015 KGNV: 82/2021 KCRG: 82/2021
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 57 70 31 51 / 0 40 0 0
SSI 57 72 37 54 / 0 20 0 0
JAX 56 78 35 55 / 0 20 0 0
SGJ 56 78 40 56 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 55 78 37 57 / 0 10 0 0
OCF 54 76 38 58 / 0 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ138-233-
333.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ450-452-454.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
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