105
FXUS62 KJAX 291120
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
620 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS
- COLDER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEK. FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND LOW WIND CHILLS TUE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
INLAND LIGHT FREEZES WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL WED NIGHT
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR AREA-WIDE DENSE FOG, BUT
SEA FOG ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE NE FL COASTAL COUNTIES OF ST.
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES AND SEA FOG FROM THE NE GULF ALREADY ON
THE MOVE TOWARDS THE NE, PUSHING INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR, SO HAVE
PULLED THE TRIGGER ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF NE FL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 5AM, AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AS
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DENSE FOG MAY BECOME MORE PATCHY IN NATURE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS INLAND SE GA, EXPECT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO KEEP
FOG MORE PATCHY IN NATURE AND NOT AS DENSE. LOW TEMPS ALREADY
REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND NEAR 60F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND MAY ACTUALLY INCH UPWARDS TOWARDS
SUNRISE AS SW WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE.
TODAY...AFTER FOG DISPERSES THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASING SW WINDS,
WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH BY
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, REMAINING JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. MEANWHILE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO INLAND
SE GA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40
MPH EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
PROGRESS SE INTO NE FL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND CENTRAL FL AROUND
SUNSET AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, BUT WILL BE TRICKY AND BASED ON TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, EXPECTING
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SE GA, AND NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80F ACROSS MOST OF NE FL THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NW WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT, THEN
SOME SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE NW WINDS TO 10-15G20 MPH TOWARDS
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. STILL A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF A LIGHT
ADVECTIVE FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND SE GA WITH LOWS AROUND 30F
AND WILL KEEP FREEZE WATCH IN PLACE. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR SE GA AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FOR NE FL AND WILL BE CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE WITH THIS PACKAGE. LIKELY TOO MUCH
WIND STILL ONGOING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FROST FORMATION, BUT SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH SOME DROP OFF IN WINDS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FROST FORMATION AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
OVERALL MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING IN THE LAST 10
DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL NE FL/SE GA REGION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
COLD AND DRY AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LIGHT TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COLD, DRY AIR INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO ABOUT A 20 DEGREE SWING IN
DAYTIME HIGHS FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH INTO
THE 50S, A FEW LOCATIONS ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S, WITH SE GA
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 50S AND NE FL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK TO DEVELOP, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FROST TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S, WITH
LOWER 30S ALONG NORTH CENTRAL FL AND MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVER NE FL, MAY BRING SOME LOCATIONS TO
REACH JUST NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY, SIMILAR PATTERN WE BE IN PLACE WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING TO BRING IN COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. CLEARER SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR/AT FREEZING WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARDS
THE FL PENINSULA AFTER MIDWEEK, CLEARING THE AREA BY FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA LEADING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFT
TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGIN TO DWINDLE AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER MIDWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS SITTING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY AND THEN
REACHING JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
STRATUS AND FOG WILL PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS AT MOST AREA TAF SITES
EARLY THIS 12Z TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND STRATUS POTENTIAL MAY PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS
UNTIL THIS BOUNDARY PASSES. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING, AND PICK UP FURTHER ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR TONIGHT, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING.
MARINE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE TUESDAY
NE FL MODERATE TUESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES IN THE 20S INLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
IN ADDITION TO GOOD TO BORDERLINE HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION. MIN RH
VALUES DROP INTO THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG IS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER NE FL.
A FREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND SE GA TONIGHT. A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 71 30 50 27 / 60 0 0 0
SSI 72 36 53 33 / 50 0 0 0
JAX 77 34 55 29 / 50 0 0 0
SGJ 78 37 57 34 / 40 10 0 0
GNV 78 35 57 29 / 50 10 0 0
OCF 78 36 57 29 / 30 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-
030-031-035-038-120-132-136>138-140-220-232-233-236-237-
240-322-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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