383
FXUS62 KJAX 041055
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
555 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING, PATCHY
FOG, WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL, IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND INTO DAWN. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN TODAY, WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG NORTH
CENTRAL FL. ONSHORE FLOW, WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS PRIMARILY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS AS A COASTAL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO FORM.
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NEAR CALM OVER INLAND LOCATIONS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD PERIOD WITH A MODERATION IN THE TEMPS
EXPECTED.
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WHILE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS
POSITIONED NEAR OUR COAST LINE. THIS TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS, BUT REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. IT WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS CLOUDS DUE IN PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK IN CURVED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ONSHORE FLOW/NORTHEAST
WINDS WEAK AT ABOUT 10 MPH EXPECTED, POSSIBLY HIGHER AT THE BEACHES.
WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS NOT AS COOL AS SUNDAY, AND WE ARE
FORECASTING UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 70S FURTHER SOUTH,
WARMEST MID 70S TEMPS SOUTH OF A GAINESVILLE TO BUNNELL LINE.
WEAK SFC RIDGING AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE FURTHER EAST OF
THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S WITH INLAND EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY, WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL FL
AREA WITH PROBABLY SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH THE RIDGE MOVING SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY, LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO MOVING INTO THE
LOWER CONUS. MAX TEMPS WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 70S, AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AGAIN EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODERATING LOW TEMPS,
WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED INTO THU,
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FL. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE WARM REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY. WE MAY BE
WITHIN 3 DEG OF RECORD HIGHS THU AND FRI. DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60S FOR AREAS NEAR THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN. CONDITIONS EACH MORNING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY
INLAND FOG.
TOWARDS FRI AND SAT, THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST, EXPECTED TO BRING 20-30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH ZONES AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS SYSTEM IS THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON IMPACTS AND TIMING.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AT LIFR AND IFR (ABOUT 300-700 FT) WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO DEVELOP AT
MOST OF THE TAFS NOW UNTIL AROUND 16Z-20Z WITH A IFR TO LOW-END
MVFR CIG. ANTICIPATE MVFR CIG MAY BE STILL PREVALENT AT 00Z
TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE
EVENING, MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT,
WITH VSBY ALSO DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW 1 MILE AFTER 06Z MAINLY
INLAND TERMINALS. CURRENTLY, UNCERTAIN IF SOME CLEARING TO VFR
OCCURS FOR SSI, CRG, AND SGJ LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SOME
DRIER AIR MIXES IN ON NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, BUT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VFR CHANCE AT BETTER THAN 70 PERCENT BY
08Z-12Z. SFC WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS
TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NEAR CALM AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT, CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY DAWN. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND MAINTAIN CAUTION LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ITS AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT. DISPERSION VALUES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL
BE FAIR TO POOR. ON MONDAY, LOWER DISPERSION VALUES AROUND 20 UNITS
ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, HIGHER DISPERSION INDICES, AND WARMING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITY LOCALLY BELOW 1 MILE.
AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING INLAND AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 43 67 48 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 58 49 66 53 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 61 46 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 62 53 71 54 / 0 0 10 10
GNV 66 48 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 67 49 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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