213
FXUS62 KJAX 041545
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1045 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
- LATE NIGHT / EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY.
UPDATE
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1024
MILLIBARS) EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE OZARKS. THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED
OUR AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FL.
ALOFT...TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD WAS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD, WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS ADVECTING A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION, WITH LATEST GOES-
EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING THAT
PWATS VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 1 INCH ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW 850 MILLIBARS (AROUND 5,000 FEET)
PER THE MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE, WHICH HAS LOCKED IN A
LAYER OF LOW STRATUS CEILINGS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION, WITH
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED AT 15Z, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS, EXCEPT AROUND 60 IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. DEWPOINTS AT
15Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S, EXCEPT AROUND 60
IN NORTH CENTRAL FL.
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY FILTER INTO OUR AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, ALLOWING FOR SOME EROSION OF THE
STRATUS CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE FOR ANY
ONE LOCATION IN OUR AREA RECEIVING SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON
REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE SEASONALLY LOW SUN ANGLE IN PLACE, WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS CEILINGS TO ONLY GRADUALLY RISE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE THUS LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO THE MID/UPPER 50S COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GA AND MOST OF COASTAL NORTHEAST FL TO THE LOW/MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT, WITH COASTAL
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER OUR NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP AND
THEN EXPAND ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP A NORTHERLY
BREEZE IN PLACE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S FORECAST FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND LOWER 50S FOR
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. LOWS AT INLAND LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH AXIS, KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION,
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER AWAY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY, THE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY AND DISSIPATE. THE
COMBINATION OF FOG AND STRATUS INLAND, AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
WILL YIELD A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY. BUT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER AREA WITH FOG
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH, YIELDING A FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. A WARM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOG CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH
THIS FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH, WITH A WEAKENING LINE OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY. WITH CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING THE DIURNAL MAX COULD BE A
LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY, WITH READINGS PULLING BACK IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL
BE A COOLER DAY, WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AT LIFR AND IFR (ABOUT 300-700 FT) WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO DEVELOP AT MOST OF
THE TAFS UNTIL AROUND 16Z-20Z WITH A IFR TO LOW-END MVFR CIG.
ANTICIPATE MVFR CIG MAY BE STILL PREVALENT AT 00Z TONIGHT. WITH
LOW LEVEL COOLING COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE EVENING, MIX OF MVFR
AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH VSBY ALSO
DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW 1 MILE AFTER 06Z MAINLY INLAND TERMINALS.
CURRENTLY, UNCERTAIN IF SOME CLEARING TO VFR OCCURS FOR SSI,
CRG, AND SGJ LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR MIXES
IN ON NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
VFR CHANCE AT BETTER THAN 70 PERCENT BY 08Z-12Z. SFC WINDS
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS TODAY, BECOMING
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NEAR CALM AFTER 00Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TODAY, KEEPING
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER OUR
NEAR SHORE WATERS, POSSIBLY DEVELOPING A FEW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
COASTAL TROUGHING WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGES POSSIBLE EACH EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. EPISODES OF SEA FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY THEN STRENGTHEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH
MAY BRING SHOWERS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES: MODERATE TODAY, LOW ON MONDAY
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES: MODERATE TODAY AND MONDAY
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
FRIDAY PROVIDING A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 43 67 48 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 56 48 66 53 / 10 0 0 10
JAX 59 47 71 51 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 61 53 71 54 / 10 10 10 10
GNV 63 48 74 51 / 10 10 0 0
OCF 66 48 75 50 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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