113
FXUS62 KJAX 041846
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
146 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. MAIN
IMPACT AREA: INLAND, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS I-75. VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FORECAST DURING MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES THROUGH
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1025
MILLIBARS) BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED THE COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSED OUR AREA SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH FL. ALOFT...TROUGHING
WAS EXITING THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD, WHILE RIDGING WAS
BUILDING FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WAS CREATING DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH WAS GRADUALLY ADVECTING A DRIER AIR
MASS INTO OUR REGION. LATEST GOES- EAST DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PWATS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE, WITH VALUES AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA AND CLOSER TO 0.75 INCHES IN NORTH CENTRAL FL.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS OUR
REGION AT 18Z, WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA AND OCMULGEE RIVERS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
AS A DRIER AIR MASS GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, THE STRATUS CLOUD DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT, WITH
COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER OUR NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG TO
REDEVELOP AND THEN EXPAND ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP A
NORTHERLY BREEZE IN PLACE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FORECAST FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND
LOWER 50S FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. LOWS AT INLAND LOCATIONS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS, KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE
GULF STREAM WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION,
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER AWAY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY, THE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY AND DISSIPATE. THE
COMBINATION OF FOG AND STRATUS INLAND, AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
WILL YIELD A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY. BUT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER AREA WITH FOG
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH, YIELDING A FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. A
WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOG CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH
THIS FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH, WITH A WEAKENING LINE OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY. WITH CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING THE DIURNAL MAX COULD BE A
LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY, WITH READINGS PULLING BACK IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL
BE A COOLER DAY, WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY ERODING. IFR
CEILINGS JUST UNDER 1,000 FEET AT SSI AND GNV ARE EXPECTED TO
LIFT TO MVFR TOWARDS 19Z. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
TO VFR TOWARDS 22Z AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND SGJ, WHILE
A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED TOWARDS 00Z AT GNV
AND SSI. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z
MONDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 17Z. NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS SHOULD BACK
TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AFTER SUNSET, WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARDS 01Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 13Z, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS TOWARDS 16Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, KEEPING BREEZY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER OUR NEAR SHORE
WATERS, POSSIBLY DEVELOPING A FEW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COASTAL TROUGHING
WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
EVENING WIND SURGES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EPISODES OF SEA FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER
THIS WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY THEN STRENGTHEN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH MAY BRING
SHOWERS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES: LOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES: MODERATE ON MONDAY, LOW ON TUESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
FRIDAY PROVIDING A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 43 68 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 48 67 52 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 47 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 53 72 53 75 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 48 74 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 48 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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