579
FXUS62 KJAX 042358
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
658 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. MAIN IMPACT
AREA: INLAND, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS I-75. VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE
POSSIBLE
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH MID TO LATE WEEK
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1025 MILLIBARS)
BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED OUR AREA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH FL. ALOFT...TROUGHING WAS EXITING THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD, WHILE RIDGING WAS BUILDING FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WAS
CREATING DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH WAS
GRADUALLY ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION. LATEST GOES-
EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PWATS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE, WITH VALUES AROUND ONE HALF INCH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND CLOSER TO 0.75 INCHES IN NORTH CENTRAL FL.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS OUR REGION
AT 18Z, WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA AND OCMULGEE RIVERS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FL.
AS A DRIER AIR MASS GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, THE STRATUS CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT, WITH COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER
OUR NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND
PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP AND THEN EXPAND ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP A NORTHERLY BREEZE IN PLACE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FORECAST FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND
LOWER 50S FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. LOWS AT INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH AXIS, KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION, WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER AWAY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY AND DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF FOG AND
STRATUS INLAND, AND THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL YIELD A CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY. BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TREND
ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER AREA WITH FOG
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH, YIELDING A FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. A CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. A WARM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOG CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH, WITH A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO SATURDAY. WITH
CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING THE DIURNAL MAX COULD BE A LITTLE EARLIER IN
THE DAY, WITH READINGS PULLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE A
COOLER DAY, WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE NE FL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN THROUGH 14Z.
CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BETWEEN 04-14Z. FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AT THE INLAND TERMINALS DROPPING VISIBILITIES
TO IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR AT GNV AND VQQ. LIGHT NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SHIFT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS, POSSIBLY DEVELOPING A FEW
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WITH PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY THEN STRENGTHEN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH
MAY BRING SHOWERS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW MONDAY
NE FL MODERATE MONDAY
FIRE WEATHER
AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS MONDAY...
PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY
PROVIDING A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 43 68 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 48 67 52 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 47 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 53 72 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 48 74 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 48 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page