463
FXUS62 KJAX 051051
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
551 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING THROUGH MID WEEK.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG: VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE. MAIN IMPACT
AREA: INLAND, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS I-75 & HIGHWAY 301
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES EARLY THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL START THE
DAY WITH A COASTAL TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 40-60 NM OFF OUR COAST. ANY
ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SHOWERS BY MIDDAY WILL REMAIN ABOUT 60 NM
OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE DAY WILL
START OFF WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG INLAND
AREAS, WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS TRENDING TO
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, EXCEPT A NORTHEAST
BREEZE ABOUT 10 MPH AT THE COAST.
FOR TONIGHT, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ENABLE A
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE DROP, BUT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT, CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG, SOME OF WHICH WILL
BE DENSE AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE INLAND NORTHEAST FL INTO PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTS ALLOWING FOR THE WARMING PATTERN TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE GULF,
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BOTH
NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND MOVE INTO SE GA BY FRIDAY. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS WILL ONLY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS DIP TO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING WITH IFR AND LIFR CIGS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR AT TIMES FOR JAX, CRG, AND VQQ EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT STILL
HAVE GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/VSBY. SSI TERMINAL WILL MOSTLY HAVE
MVFR VSBY UNTIL AROUND 15Z. NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS WILL SEE FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT IN THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME, WITH GNV SEEING THE LATEST
CIGS TO LIFT THERE NEAR 18Z-19Z. VFR MAY PREVAIL AFTER 18Z-20Z FOR
ALL TAFS, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PERIOD OF MVFR CIG ABOUT 2500-
3000 FT. FOR LATE TONIGHT, THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE VSBY WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND THEN QUICKLY DOWN TO IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY, AND ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM, WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN
DISSIPATE. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO A PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WIND BY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
THEN STRENGTHEN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY
PROVIDING A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER. NEAR CALM WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR POOR DISPERSIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
GOOD DISPERSIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK. GOOD MIN
RH VALUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 67 48 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 65 53 70 56 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 69 50 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 70 54 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 72 51 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 73 51 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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