992
FXUS62 KJAX 051620
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1120 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE EXPECTED. MAIN IMPACT AREAS:
INLAND LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS I-75 & U.S. HIGHWAY 301.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
UPDATE
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1025
MILLIBARS) LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WITH THIS
FEATURE WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE,
COASTAL TROUGHING WAS SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS, WITH
THIS FEATURE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FL.
ALOFT...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (SOUTHWESTERN
GULF) WAS EXTENDING ITS AXIS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PROVIDING DEEP AND DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PWATS ACROSS OUR
AREA REMAIN IN THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS
AND SOME PATCHES OF FOG WERE LINGERING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL FL AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT / OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH WAS
GENERATING PATCHES OF MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 16Z RANGED FROM THE LOW AND MID 50S FOR
LOCATIONS STUCK BENEATH THE STUBBORN STRATUS CLOUD LAYER TO THE
LOW AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS AT 15Z RANGED FROM THE MID
40S FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA / OCMULGEE RIVERS IN
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOW AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALLOWING FOR
COASTAL TROUGHING THAT IS SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS TO
LIFT NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. THIS COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY NEAR THE GULF
STREAM WATERS. LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ERODE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHILE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AT THESE LOCATIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE
LESS CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ALLOW HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOW AND MID 70S.
A LOOSE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERSPREADING OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
CLOUD COVER REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE
FOG ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA DURING THE PREDAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S, EXCEPT MID 50S ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CENTER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY, AND REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
MILD FLOW ACROSS THE GULF, EXPECT FOG TO ADVECT ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW TO COME MORE
FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE CHANGE IN FLOW, FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOWER, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT PATCHY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO INLAND COUNTIES AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING
LINE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR
AVERAGE READINGS EXPECTED SUNDAY, THEN BELOW ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS
THIS MORNING WITH IFR AND LIFR CIGS AT TIMES. SOME IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FOR JAX, CRG, AND VQQ EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT STILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/VSBY. SSI TERMINAL WILL
MOSTLY HAVE MVFR VSBY UNTIL AROUND 15Z. NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS
WILL SEE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME, WITH GNV
SEEING THE LATEST CIGS TO LIFT THERE NEAR 18Z-19Z. VFR MAY
PREVAIL AFTER 18Z-20Z FOR ALL TAFS, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
PERIOD OF MVFR CIG ABOUT 2500- 3000 FT. FOR LATE TONIGHT, THE
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE VSBY WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND
THEN QUICKLY DOWN TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE 06Z-12Z
TIME FRAME.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TODAY BEFORE
THIS FEATURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
COASTAL TROUGHING OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TONIGHT, KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GULF STREAM WATERS. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND ITS AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, CREATING PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE THIS WEEK WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEA FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES: LOW THROUGH TUESDAY
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES: MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON, LOW ON TUESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 67 47 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 65 53 70 56 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 72 50 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 73 55 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 73 50 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 75 51 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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