335
FXUS62 KJAX 051914
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
214 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE ARE EXPECTED. MAIN IMPACT AREAS:
INLAND LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS I-75 & U.S. HIGHWAY 301.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1025
MILLIBARS) LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS, WITH THIS FEATURE WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, COASTAL TROUGHING WAS SITUATED OVER OUR
NEAR SHORE WATERS, WITH THIS FEATURE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO
NORTHEAST FL. ALOFT...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
(SOUTHWESTERN GULF) WAS EXTENDING ITS AXIS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PROVIDING DEEP AND DRY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LATEST GOES-
EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
PWATS ACROSS OUR AREA REMAIN IN THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE. LOWER
STRATUS CLOUD COVER THAT PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA THIS
MORNING HAS ERODED FROM ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
/ OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
CREATING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA. TEMPERATURES AT THESE LOCATIONS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS OF 19Z. DECREASING
CLOUD COVER AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ELSEWHERE HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S. DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR COASTAL
TROUGHING THAT IS SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. THIS COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT,
MAINLY NEAR THE GULF STREAM WATERS. A LOOSE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, WITH AREAS OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA DURING
THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S, EXCEPT MID 50S
ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CENTER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY, AND REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS
MILD FLOW ACROSS THE GULF, EXPECT FOG TO ADVECT ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW TO COME MORE
FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE CHANGE IN FLOW, FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOWER, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT PATCHY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO INLAND COUNTIES AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING
LINE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR
AVERAGE READINGS EXPECTED SUNDAY, THEN BELOW ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 05Z TUESDAY, WITH CEILINGS OF 3,500 - 4,500 FEET POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 23Z THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT VQQ, GNV, AND SGJ AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 06Z, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT THESE TERMINALS BY
08Z. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD TO JAX AND CRG
BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z. CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS AT THE SSI TERMINAL IS
LOWER, AND WE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THAT
TERMINAL TOWARDS 09Z. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 15Z. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHEAST FL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 22Z, WHILE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 22Z AT SSI. LIGHT WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED A 5 KNOTS OR LESS ARE THEN
FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE THIS
FEATURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, COASTAL
TROUGHING OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TONIGHT, KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GULF STREAM WATERS. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND ITS AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, CREATING PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE THIS WEEK WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEA FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES: LOW THROUGH TUESDAY
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES: MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 47 71 55 75 / 10 10 0 10
SSI 53 69 57 72 / 0 0 10 0
JAX 50 75 56 77 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 55 75 57 75 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 50 78 57 78 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 51 78 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page