507
FXUS62 KJAX 052332
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
632 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. LOCALLY DENSE
FOG: VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE. MAIN IMPACT AREA: INLAND LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS I-75 & HIGHWAY 301
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1025 MILLIBARS)
LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS, WITH THIS
FEATURE WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, COASTAL
TROUGHING WAS SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS, WITH THIS FEATURE
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FL. ALOFT...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE (SOUTHWESTERN GULF) WAS EXTENDING ITS AXIS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PROVIDING DEEP AND DRY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LATEST GOES-EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PWATS ACROSS
OUR AREA REMAIN IN THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE. LOWER STRATUS CLOUD
COVER THAT PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING HAS ERODED
FROM ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA, WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING IN
A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CREATING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA.
TEMPERATURES AT THESE LOCATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AS OF 19Z. DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ELSEWHERE HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR COASTAL TROUGHING THAT IS
SITUATED OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
THIS COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY NEAR THE GULF STREAM
WATERS. A LOOSE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER REDEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT, WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AREA DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER
50S, EXCEPT MID 50S ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CENTER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY, AND REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS MILD FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF, EXPECT FOG TO ADVECT ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW TO COME MORE FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE
CHANGE IN FLOW, FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
PATCHY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO INLAND COUNTIES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR
AVERAGE READINGS EXPECTED SUNDAY, THEN BELOW ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS OF 3,500 - 4,500 FEET INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS/FOG WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE
INLAND SITES NEAR 06Z, BECOMING LIFR AROUND 08Z. WITH JAX METRO
SITES SEEING FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND 10Z-12Z. CEILINGS AND FOG SHOULD
LIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS VFR CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TODAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, COASTAL TROUGHING
OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT, KEEPING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
GULF STREAM WATERS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND ITS AXIS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, CREATING
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE THIS
WEEK WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEA FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT.
THIS FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW TUESDAY
NE FL MODERATE TUESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS SE GA TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY
- PATCHY LOW DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 47 71 55 75 / 10 10 0 10
SSI 53 69 57 72 / 0 0 10 0
JAX 50 75 56 77 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 55 75 57 75 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 50 78 57 78 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 51 78 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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