075
FXUS62 KJAX 060612
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
112 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING & WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY OF 1/4
MILE AT TIMES, WITH DENSE FOG ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST FL WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT SETTING UP MORE PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA AND A WARMING AND MOISTENING
TREND. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP WITH DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES LIKELY GIVEN THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVER THE REGION.
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES BY MID MORNING, WE WILL SEE A WARMER
DAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.
MODELS SHOW AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, WITH
PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1.1 INCHES, ALONG WITH A STRUNG-OUT VORT
LOBE THAT MAY HELP DEVELOP SOME SPRINKLES FOR THE AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SUB-15
PERCENT SO NO MENTION OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, HRRR
SHOWS A FEW POP- UP LIGHT SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA AND OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
TONIGHT, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO SOUTH CENTRAL
FL WHICH WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND BRING ENCOURAGE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN. GIVEN
THE INCREASED WIND, MORE STRATUS CLOUDS THEN FOG IS LIKELY, BUT
WE STILL ARE FORECASTING AREAS OF FOG, WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT
LEAST POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TODAY, REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S, AND LOWS
TONIGHT MILD AGAIN IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY,
WAS WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA MIDWEEK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND MID TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BOTH NIGHTS. FOG CONCERNS REMAIN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING AS NEAR CALM WINDS AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC AS COLD
FRONT IS MOVES TOWARDS THE SE CONUS ON FRIDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL LOOK TO PUSH INTO SE GA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE FL/GA
STATE LINE AND TOWARDS THE THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL FL COUNTIES. DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON SATURDAY, BUT
STILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROP
FURTHER ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. A RETURN TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
INLAND SE GA SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COOLER AIR.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 09Z
WITH SSI ALREADY REPORTING IT AT 06Z. MOST SITES WILL PROBABLY
BE AT IFR AND LIFR BY 09Z-10Z AND POSSIBLY ALL SITES LIFR/VLIFR
AT 12Z. CEILINGS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS VFR CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT
04Z-05Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL CREATE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH LATE THIS WEEK WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE
AREA WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA, LOW RISK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR NE FL,
MODERATE RISK TODAY AND A LOW RISK WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS SE GA TODAY AND FRIDAY
- PATCHY LOW DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH GOOD DISPERSIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS AS WELL.
LOWER DISPERSIONS DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GOOD MIN RH
VALUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY-SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 56 76 54 / 0 10 0 0
SSI 69 57 72 56 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 75 56 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 74 57 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 77 57 78 56 / 0 10 0 0
OCF 76 56 78 55 / 0 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-120-
220-322-422-522.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>135-
149-162-163-250-350.
MARINE...NONE.
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