948
FXUS62 KJAX 061515
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1015 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES OF AROUND ONE MILE OR LESS
POSSIBLE.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- INLAND LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
(1021 MILLIBARS) POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE, A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. ALOFT...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
(SOUTHWESTERN GULF) WAS PRODUCING DEEP WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WAS PUSHING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW
STRATUS CEILINGS AND FOG THAT PLAGUED MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS MOSTLY ERODED, EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH AND EAST OF WAYCROSS, OR NEAR JESUP. OTHERWISE, WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS CREATING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING THAT
HAS CREATED A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDINESS THAT
WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES AT 15Z
WERE QUICKLY WARMING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
OUR AREA, EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA, WHERE STRATUS CLOUDINESS HAS MORE RECENTLY DISSIPATED.
DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA, EXCEPT LOWER
60S FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT, AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PROGRESSES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND
RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND MEXICO'S
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS ITS
AXIS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, CREATING LOW LEVEL WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH FOR A WEAK ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS THAT WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS INLAND TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR TOWARDS SUNSET. BREAKS
IN THE OCCASIONAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS
AROUND AND SOUTH OF OCALA IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK THROUGH THE 60S LATE
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY.
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ADVECT A LAYER OF
LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER EASTWARD FROM APALACHEE BAY AND THE
NORTHEAST GULF ONSHORE ALONG THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG THEN EXPANDING EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MAY
PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS, BUT PATCHY TO
AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE,
ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP A FEW MORE AREAS OF MID-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA, AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY
THURSDAY, WAS WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA MIDWEEK. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BOTH
NIGHTS. FOG CONCERNS REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY
MORNING AS NEAR CALM WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD BRING PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE SE CONUS ON FRIDAY. CURRENT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL LOOK TO PUSH INTO SE GA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL PUSH TOWARDS
THE FL/GA STATE LINE AND TOWARDS THE THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
FL COUNTIES. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
SATURDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. A RETURN TO
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND SE GA SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE COOLER AIR.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AROUND 12Z-14Z WITH A MIX OF IFR TO VLIFR. STRATOCU CLOUDS
AROUND 4-5 KFT MAY HELP IMPROVE SOME CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 15Z-16Z WITH VFR
LIKELY THEREAFTER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BASES AROUND 3500-5000 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT 04Z-05Z, WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY CIGS) MOVING IN FROM 06Z-12Z FROM
WEST TO EAST.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT EXTENDS ITS AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CREATE A
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS,
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WILL WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THIS FEATURE STRENGTHENING AS IT SHIFTS
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT PREVAILING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FRONT
MAY BRING A SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS, MAINLY FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WEAKENS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES: LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES: MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON, LOW ON WEDNESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS SE GA TODAY AND FRIDAY
- PATCHY LOW DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH GOOD
DISPERSIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH
DISPERSIONS AS WELL. LOWER DISPERSIONS DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. GOOD MIN RH VALUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY-SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 55 76 54 / 0 10 0 0
SSI 70 57 72 56 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 76 56 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 75 57 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 77 57 78 56 / 0 10 0 0
OCF 78 57 78 55 / 0 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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