870
FXUS62 KJAX 061851
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
151 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT & EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT INLAND
LOCATIONS.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY.
- LIGHT FREEZE & FROST POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
(1021 MILLIBARS) POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, WITH
THIS FEATURE EXTENDING ITS AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY, THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
ALOFT...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (SOUTHWESTERN
GULF) WAS PRODUCING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THIS LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE NATION WAS PUSHING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES HAVE NOW
CLIMBED JUST ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WAS CREATING PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA. BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD COVER HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S
AT INLAND LOCATIONS AS OF 19Z, WHILE THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ONSHORE AT AREA BEACHES, COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT, AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PROGRESSES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND
RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND MEXICO'S
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS ITS AXIS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, CREATING
LOW LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH FOR A WEAK ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST TO
SLOWLY PROGRESS INLAND TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK THROUGH THE 60S LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-95.
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ADVECT A LAYER OF
LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER EASTWARD FROM APALACHEE BAY AND THE
NORTHEAST GULF ONSHORE ALONG THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS
THIS EVENING, WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES
TO AREAS OF FOG THEN EXPANDING EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MAY PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION ON A
WIDESPREAD BASIS, BUT PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP A
FEW MORE AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA, AND THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD NORTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
AREA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH FL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, BUT
STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES (ABOVE THE
75TH PERCENTILE) AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY HELP DEVELOP
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS, BUT EVEN SO NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SHOWERS OR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
AFTER A ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MAINLY LOW LEVEL CUMULUS
UNDER SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S OVER SE GA AND UPPER 70S ACROSS NE FL HIGHS A BIT
COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE LOW 70S OVER COASTAL SE GA AND THE
LOW/MID 70S OVER COASTAL NE FL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS LIFTING
BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
EVENING AND LAST UNTIL THURSDAY MID MORNING. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 50S ALONG
THE COAST AND SUWANNEE VALLEY.
THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FL PENINSULA TO CENTRAL FL. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO KICK IN WITH THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON TURNS WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS
IT MOVES INLAND OF I-95, WHICH WILL COOL THE COAST TO AROUND 70
DEGREES FOR HIGHS WHILE WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F
ACROSS NE FL AND MID 70S SE GA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW, BUT LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL HELP LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY DOG
REDEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT OVER NE FL. LOWS WILL ABOVE NORMAL
A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN NARRATIVE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
RECORD WARMTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, BRINGING AN
END TO A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH COLD
WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON FRIDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD OR NEAR-
RECORD WARMTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CWA FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NEAR THE ALTAMAHA AND
OCMULGEE RIVER BASINS, NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE AND
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2040 PERCENT, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
THERE ARE LOWER (10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE) OR NIL PROBABILITIES
OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-10. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL TREND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO UPPER 50THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-10, AND 65 TO 70 SOUTH OF
I-10 SUNDAY AND COOL FURTHER INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL SHARPLY, WITH NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, WHILE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE MID 40S WILL COMMON.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 04Z TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS OVER APALACHEE BAY
AND THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
ONSHORE ALONG THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING, WITH THIS LOW STRATUS LAYER THEN EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
LEVELS OF AROUND OR JUST UNDER 1,000 FEET BEFORE 05Z AT GNV AND
VQQ AND TOWARDS 07Z AT THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE LIFR CEILINGS OF UNDER
500 FEET AT GNV AND VQQ DEVELOPING BEFORE 07Z, WITH IFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AT THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS BEFORE 09Z.
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS SHOULD THEN OVERSPREAD THE SSI TERMINAL
TOWARDS 08Z, WITH LOW MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR BEFORE 09Z.
THE VISIBILITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN, BUT VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT VQQ AND GNV OVERNIGHT, WITH CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INDICATE VISIBILITIES FALLING BELOW 3 MILES
ELSEWHERE. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER 14Z, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 16Z AND THEN VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE INLAND TERMINALS,
WHILE ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PREVAIL AT SGJ BEHIND THE
INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
LIKELY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT SSI AFTER 19Z.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CREATE A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BUILDING OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES WILL WEDGE DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THIS
FEATURE STRENGTHENING AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. PREVAILING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FRONT
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS, MAINLY ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WEAKENS
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES: LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES: MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON, LOW ON WEDNESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER ON FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH GOOD
DISPERSIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH
DISPERSIONS AS WELL.
LOWER DISPERSIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GOOD
MIN RH VALUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY-
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF
AMERICA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OUR DESIGNATED CLIMATE SITES FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, JANUARY 8 - 10:
THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY
--------------------------------
JACKSONVILLE 82/2005 83/1974 82/1957
GAINESVILLE 84/1947 83/1989 85/1937
ALMA, GA 79/2005 79/1974 80/1949
CRAIG AIRPORT 81/2005 81/2005 79/2014
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 55 75 55 74 / 0 10 10 0
SSI 57 72 57 70 / 0 0 10 0
JAX 56 76 55 76 / 0 10 0 0
SGJ 57 76 57 75 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 57 79 56 80 / 0 10 0 0
OCF 57 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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