471
FXUS62 KJAX 062316
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
616 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT & EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
- LIGHT FREEZE & FROST POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY ON MONDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
(1021 MILLIBARS) POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, WITH THIS
FEATURE EXTENDING ITS AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE, A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ALOFT...RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (SOUTHWESTERN GULF) WAS PRODUCING DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. THIS LARGELY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WAS PUSHING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST GOES-EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES
HAVE NOW CLIMBED JUST ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. A WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WAS CREATING PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA. BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S AS OF 18Z.
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT, AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PROGRESSES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES STATES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND RIDGING REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND MEXICO'S YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS ITS
AXIS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, CREATING LOW LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR OUR AREA. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE
ENOUGH FOR A WEAK ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST TO SLOWLY PROGRESS INLAND TOWARDS THE I-95
CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK THROUGH
THE 60S LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-95.
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE AXIS OF
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ADVECT A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER
EASTWARD FROM APALACHEE BAY AND THE NORTHEAST GULF ONSHORE ALONG THE
FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS THIS EVENING, WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG THEN EXPANDING EAST AND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MAY PREVENT DENSE FOG
FORMATION ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS, BUT PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP A FEW MORE AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA,
AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD NORTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH
FL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, BUT STALLS JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES (ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE) AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY HELP DEVELOP WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS, BUT EVEN
SO NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED SHOWERS OR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AFTER A ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MAINLY
LOW LEVEL CUMULUS UNDER SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S OVER SE GA AND UPPER 70S ACROSS NE FL HIGHS A
BIT COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE LOW 70S OVER COASTAL SE GA AND THE
LOW/MID 70S OVER COASTAL NE FL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS LIFTING BACK NORTH
TOWARDS THE AREA. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE EVENING AND LAST UNTIL
THURSDAY MID MORNING. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND SUWANNEE VALLEY.
THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FL PENINSULA TO CENTRAL FL. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO KICK IN WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE IN
THE AFTERNOON TURNS WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS IT MOVES INLAND
OF I-95, WHICH WILL COOL THE COAST TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
WHILE WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F ACROSS NE FL AND MID 70S
SE GA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, BUT LIGHT
WINDS THAT WILL HELP LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY DOG REDEVELOPING LATE
OVERNIGHT OVER NE FL. LOWS WILL ABOVE NORMAL A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN NARRATIVE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE RECORD
WARMTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, BRINGING AN END TO A PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH COLD WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON FRIDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD WARMTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CWA
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NEAR THE ALTAMAHA AND OCMULGEE
RIVER BASINS, NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE AND ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS. RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 2040 PERCENT, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THERE ARE LOWER (10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE) OR NIL PROBABILITIES OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-10. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL TREND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO UPPER 50THE
LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-10, AND 65 TO 70 SOUTH OF I-10 SUNDAY AND COOL
FURTHER INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL SHARPLY, WITH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHILE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE MID 40S WILL COMMON.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
ONSHORE AND OVERSPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS
SHOULD LOWER TO IFR/LIFR. THE VISIBILITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS
CERTAIN, BUT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT VQQ AND GNV OVERNIGHT,
WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INDICATE VISIBILITIES FALLING BELOW 3
MILES ELSEWHERE. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT AT
THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER 13Z, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 16Z AND THEN VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SW WINDS
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SW
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS PREVAIL AFTER 15Z.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CREATE A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS, MAINLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW WEDNESDAY
NE FL LOW WEDNESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER ON FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH GOOD DISPERSIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS AS WELL.
LOWER DISPERSIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GOOD MIN
RH VALUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY-SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
CLIMATE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON 12/29 ACROSS NORTHEAST FL,
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CURRENT RECORDS STANDING AT:
DECEMBER 29TH: KJAX: 83/2015 KGNV: 82/2021 KCRG: 82/2021
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 55 75 55 74 / 0 10 10 0
SSI 57 72 57 70 / 0 0 10 0
JAX 56 76 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 57 76 57 75 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 57 79 56 80 / 0 10 0 0
OCF 57 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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