327
FXUS62 KJAX 070550
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1250 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT, WHICH MAY BECOME
DENSE
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- INLAND LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA.
- INLAND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP LAYER
MEAN RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE/STRUNG
OUT VORT LOBE DOES SKIRT ACROSS MS/AL/GA LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,
SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FL PENINSULA, KEEPING OUR AREA IN A
LOW LEVEL WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT A BIT NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT BRINGING SLIGHTLY WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO THE AREA. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH DO SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER/EASTERN GA AREA
LATE TONIGHT, BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE NOTED.
THIS MORNING, EXPECT AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
FOG AND STRATUS WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING AND LEAVE
PARTLY SUNNY/LOCALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND RADAR RETURNS REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE WESTERN MOST ZONES IN A RIBBON
OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
FORCING ALOFT. THIS POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY END BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES IN DEPTH. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOUT 8-14 MPH.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF
FOG LIKELY LATE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE STRATUS. LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS LOW AT THIS TIME. LOWS WILL BE MILD AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S, NEAR 60 TOWARD THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST SATURDAY, AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, THEN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO AVERAGE READINGS
FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD FROM GNV TO JAX/VQQ/CRG NORTHWARD.
PREDOMINATE IFR AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. VISIBILITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN, BUT IFR TO BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR VQQ, GNV, AND POSSIBLY SGJ. ELSEWHERE, THE VISIBILITY
IS LIKELY TO BE ABOVE 3 MILES. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
LIFT BY 15Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS, WITH VFR LIKELY BY 16Z
THOUGH SSI MAY HAVE MVFR LINGER UNTIL ABOUT 18Z. SOME CIGS AROUND
5 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR JAX METRO AREA NORTH TO SSI THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-7 KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME 6-10 KTS AFTER
14Z WED.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CREATE A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH OUR REGION SATURDAY,
AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK LOW WITH SURF HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 1 FOOT
OR SO. SOME INCREASED EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY OF ABOUT 13 SECONDS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT SWELLS HEIGHTS ARE LOW OF ABOUT 1
FOOT.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEKEND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
THURSDAY, JANUARY 8TH:
KAMG: 79/2005
FRIDAY, JANUARY 9TH:
KJAX: 83/1974
KGNV: 83/1989
KAMG: 79/1974
KCRG: 81/9999
SATURDAY, JANUARY 10TH:
KJAX: 82/1957
KGNV: 85/1937
KAMG: 80/1949
KCRG: 79/2014
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 55 75 56 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 73 58 69 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 78 55 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 77 58 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 80 57 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 78 56 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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