036
FXUS62 KJAX 071048
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
548 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT, WHICH MAY BECOME
DENSE
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- INLAND LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA.
- INLAND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP LAYER
MEAN RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE/STRUNG OUT VORT LOBE DOES SKIRT ACROSS MS/AL/GA LATE
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FL PENINSULA,
KEEPING OUR AREA IN A LOW LEVEL WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT A BIT NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT BRINGING
SLIGHTLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO THE AREA. A WEAK, DRY COLD
FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH DO SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER/EASTERN GA AREA LATE TONIGHT, BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
BE NOTED.
THIS MORNING, EXPECT AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD THE
I-75 CORRIDOR.
FOG AND STRATUS WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING AND LEAVE
PARTLY SUNNY/LOCALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AND RADAR RETURNS REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE WESTERN MOST ZONES IN A RIBBON OF MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY END BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS
DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES IN DEPTH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOUT 8-
14 MPH.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF
FOG LIKELY LATE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE STRATUS. LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS LOW AT THIS TIME. LOWS WILL BE MILD AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S, NEAR 60 TOWARD THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST SATURDAY, AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, THEN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO AVERAGE READINGS
FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY LOW STRATUS AT 12Z WITH
A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL BE THE DOMINATE
RESTRICTION WHILE VISIBILITY WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE. STILL
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIFR CIG, ESPECIALLY AT GNV WHERE LIFR PROBABILITY
IS HIGHEST UNTIL 14Z. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
LIFT BY 15Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS, WITH VFR LIKELY BY 16Z.
SOME CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR JAX METRO AREA
NORTH TO SSI THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
6-10 KTS AFTER 14Z AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR AND LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY LOWERING AT GNV BY
06Z THU AND SPREADING TO THE REMAINING TAFS SITES BETWEEN 08Z
AND 12Z.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CREATE A
PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY,
AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK LOW WITH SURF HEIGHTS OF ABOUT
1 FOOT OR SO. SOME INCREASED EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY OF ABOUT 13
SECONDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT SWELLS HEIGHTS ARE
LOW OF ABOUT 1 FOOT.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEKEND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
THURSDAY, JANUARY 8TH:
KAMG: 79/2005
FRIDAY, JANUARY 9TH:
KJAX: 83/1974
KGNV: 83/1989
KAMG: 79/1974
KCRG: 81/9999
SATURDAY, JANUARY 10TH:
KJAX: 82/1957
KGNV: 85/1937
KAMG: 80/1949
KCRG: 79/2014
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 55 75 56 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 73 58 69 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 78 55 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 77 58 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 80 57 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 78 56 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ140-240-
340.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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