009
FXUS62 KJAX 071424
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
924 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT, WHICH MAY BECOME
DENSE
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- INLAND LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
- INLAND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY
UPDATE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
ALSO FLAGLER/PUTNAM COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY FROM PALM COAST INTO BUNNELL
WHERE VISIBILITY AT TIMES HAS LOWERED TO UNDER 1 MILE. HAVE LET THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE ACROSS MARION COUNTY AS THE DENSE FOG HAS
LIFTED OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE COUNTY WITH ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG
LINGERING IN A FEW SPOTS.
OTHERWISE, A FEW LIGHT PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ARE MOVING EAST INTO
US441. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS SE GA THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TODAY TOWARDS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 5-10 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S UNDER MULTI-LAYED CLOUDS, BUT TRENDING PARTLY
CLOUDY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN LATE TODAY, BUT A
FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SE GA.
TONIGHT, RIDGE AXIS LIFTING OVER THE AREA WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR
FOG REFORMING FROM THE GULF COAST, ADVECTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS
THE NE FL COAST BY THE PREDAWN EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FOG MAY
BECOME DENSE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP LAYER
MEAN RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE/STRUNG OUT VORT LOBE DOES SKIRT ACROSS MS/AL/GA LATE
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FL PENINSULA,
KEEPING OUR AREA IN A LOW LEVEL WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT A BIT NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT BRINGING
SLIGHTLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO THE AREA. A WEAK, DRY COLD
FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH DO SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER/EASTERN GA AREA LATE TONIGHT, BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
BE NOTED.
THIS MORNING, EXPECT AREAS TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD THE
I-75 CORRIDOR.
FOG AND STRATUS WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING AND LEAVE
PARTLY SUNNY/LOCALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AND RADAR RETURNS REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE WESTERN MOST ZONES IN A RIBBON OF MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY END BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS
DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES IN DEPTH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOUT 8-
14 MPH.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF
FOG LIKELY LATE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE STRATUS. LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS LOW AT THIS TIME. LOWS WILL BE MILD AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S, NEAR 60 TOWARD THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST SATURDAY, AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, THEN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO AVERAGE READINGS
FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND
12Z-14Z WITH A MIX OF IFR TO VLIFR. CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT MAY HELP
IMPROVE SOME CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING. THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 15Z-16Z WITH VFR LIKELY THEREAFTER AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A CUMULUS
FIELD TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BASES AROUND 3500-
5000 FT AND WINDS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON TO WESTERLY AT 6-8 KNOTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT 04Z-05Z, WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY CIGS) MOVING IN FROM 06Z-12Z
FROM WEST TO EAST.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CREATE A
PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOLLOWING THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW THURSDAY
NE FL LOW THURSDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEKEND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
THURSDAY, JANUARY 8TH:
KAMG: 79/2005
FRIDAY, JANUARY 9TH:
KJAX: 83/1974
KGNV: 83/1989
KAMG: 79/1974
KCRG: 81/9999
SATURDAY, JANUARY 10TH:
KJAX: 82/1957
KGNV: 85/1937
KAMG: 80/1949
KCRG: 79/2014
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 57 75 56 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 73 57 69 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 78 57 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 77 57 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 80 57 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 78 57 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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