744
FXUS62 KJAX 072347
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
647 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT & THURSDAY AM FOR NORTHEAST FL AND
SOUTHEAST GA.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- INLAND LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. INLAND PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
UPDATE
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OFF THE NE GULF STILL ON TRACK
FOR DENSE FOG SET-UP LATER TONIGHT FOR ALL OF NE FL JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT-2AM AND INTO SE GA BY THE 2AM-4AM TIME FRAME AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM NE FL INTO
SE GA. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. DENSE FOG WILL HOLD
ON INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING, BUT WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A SEA FOG BANK OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THAT WILL LIKELY PUSH BACK INLAND AROUND SUNSET. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE
MORE EXPANSIVE FOG COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FL AS A WEAK FRONT
STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA AS SUPPORT FROM A PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS REMOVED WITH ITS DEPARTURE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS SE
GA AND INTO THE MID 60S OVER NE FL TODAY. HIGHS WILL WARM ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AS LOW OVERCAST LIFTS INTO A DECK
OF STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF I-10 BREAKING UP INTO CUMULUS CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
A STAGNANT PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING LIFTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE VERY LIGHT WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INITIALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR A HYBRID OF ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL FOG TO EMERGE
OFF THE GULF WATERS ALONG THE FL NATURE COAST INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND I-75 CORRIDOR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE NE FL COAST THROUGH THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING
ALL OF NE FL FROM GAINESVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE AND THE FIRST
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY LATE MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY,
SHIFTING WIND DIRECTION MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP AN OVERALL CONSISTENT PATTERN ACROSS
THE AREA FEATURING TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY FAIR BUT MUGGY
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH THE UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY, THOUGH WILL TAKE A
MODEST STEP UP ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED EXCEPT AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL ALSO PERSIST FOG POTENTIAL
EARLY EACH MORNING, WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF NORTHEAST FL EARLY AND MID MORNING THURSDAY. THIS MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA AS WELL DEPENDING ON
TRENDS TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL BE EXPECTED
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA TO MID-80S NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD
WARMTH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA AND OCMULGEE RIVER BASINS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL GA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT APPROACHES, SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY, WITH RAIN PROBABILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE WITH A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. AREAS SOUTH
OF I-10 AND EAST OF I-75 WILL SEE LOWER TO NIL RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID-50S. ON SUNDAY THERE MAY SOME
LINGERING BUT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL COOL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
COMPARED TO THE NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH A
STRONG HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE 30-TO-35-DEGREE
RANGE INTERIOR SE GA, IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND NE FL,
WITH MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF WAYCROSS.
COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-10 AND LOW TO MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW ANOTHER COLD NIGHT, WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S INLAND WITH BEST FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
BY TUESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK JUST BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF
WAYCROSS, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S TOWARDS THE ALTAMAHA. THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT SSI, AND SHOULD LIFT BY 20Z TO SCATTERED 2.5-
3.0 KFT WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT THE DUVAL COUNTY AND SGJ
TERMINALS UNTIL 19Z AS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LIFT. WEST TO WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 23Z UNDER FEW HIGH CLOUDS AS
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISPERSE.
TONIGHT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
LEVELS AS FOG DEVELOPS NEAR THE GULF COAST AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD FROM GNV 06-09Z TO THE DUVAL COUNTY AND COASTAL
TERMINALS, LOWERING VISIBILITY TO BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 MILES THROUGH
13/14Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND ALLOWS
WINDS TO BE CALM LATE TONIGHT.
APPEARS FOG WILL LIFT INTO LIFR STRATUS DECK BY 14/15Z, THEN TO VFR
LEVELS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT SSI, STAYING MVFR THROUGH 18Z. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN ATLANTIC SEABREEZE DEVELOPS IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY LIGHT WIND.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CREATE A
PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOLLOWING THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW THURSDAY
NE FL LOW THURSDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
- LOW DISPERSIONS NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEKEND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY, BUT WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACT
WITH THIS WILL BE A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH INSTEAD OF SOUTHWEST. DISPERSION WILL BE FAIR TO
GOOD TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST, THOUGH MORE AREAS WILL BE IN THE
POOR/LOW RANGE THURSDAY AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE WEAKER.
WINDS AND THEREFORE DISPERSION WILL BE ON THE UPWARD TREND FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WHICH WILL BRING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. A MUCH
DRIER AND COOL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: WIDESPREAD FOG, DENSE AT TIMES WILL
BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST FL TONIGHT. FOG POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH A
COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
THURSDAY, JANUARY 8TH:
KAMG: 79/2005
FRIDAY, JANUARY 9TH:
KJAX: 83/1974
KGNV: 83/1989
KAMG: 79/1974
KCRG: 81/9999
SATURDAY, JANUARY 10TH:
KJAX: 82/1957
KGNV: 85/1937
KAMG: 80/1949
KCRG: 79/2014
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 56 76 55 79 / 10 10 0 0
SSI 57 68 57 72 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 57 77 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 56 75 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 56 79 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 55 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR FLZ021-
023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-
225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-
533-633.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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