705
FXUS62 KJAX 081655
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1155 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG THE I-95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDORS. AREAS
OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- INLAND LIGHT FREEZES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1025
MILLIBARS) CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA, WITH THIS
FEATURE EXTENDING ITS AXIS DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
ALOFT...RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WAS DEFLECTING A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION WAS ADVECTING A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH THIS CLOUD COVER MASKING
A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK THAT PERSISTS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
SOUTHEAST GA AND GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL. LESS CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES AT 17Z TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S, WITH TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL MOSTLY IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE, EXCEPT LOW TO
MID 60S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUES
LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BENEATH THE
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK REMAIN IN THE 60S AT THE NOON HOUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN
AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
GULF STREAM WATERS ADJACENT TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUING TO
DEFLECT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
FRIDAY, WHILE ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, DENSE SEA FOG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THESE VALUES BEING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT SHELF WATER TEMPERATURES. DEVELOPING
ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ADVECT THIS DENSE SEA FOG BACK
ONSHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL COMMUNITIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TOWARDS SUNSET. PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT INLAND LOCATIONS,
ALLOWING HIGHS TO AGAIN CLIMB TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S, EXCEPT
AROUND 80 FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. HIGHS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN, WITH 60S LIKELY FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GA, RANGING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL
BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS, DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S, AND VERY LIKELY
BRINGING DENSE SEA FOG WITH IT.
DENSE SEA FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ITS INLAND TREK THIS EVENING,
WITH FOG LIKELY ADVECTING TOWARDS I-95 BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN
SPREADING INLAND TO THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.
RADIATION FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND TOWARDS THE
I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND AND AROUND
60 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS TIMING, EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY TO BE DRY, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS REACHING INLAND SE
GA LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN UPPER WAVE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO
CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AS COLD
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TUESDAY, THEN
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SHOWER
CHANCES POSSIBLE WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY, THEN
BELOW FOR THIS REST OF THIS PERIOD. A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SE GA SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT TOO MUCH WIND FOR
MUCH IF ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT. ON MONDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER, WITH WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR FROST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
OBSERVATIONS SHOW VLIFR AND LIFR DOMINATING THE AREA AND WILL
LINGER IN FIRST 2-3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, AND THEN RISE TO
MVFR BY AROUND 15Z AND THEN VFR PREVAILING BY 17Z. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SSI WHERE LOW CIGS AT LEAST IFR COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THOUGH THE VIS WILL BE BETTER AT LEAST MVFR.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
ADVANCES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LIGHT WIND.
A GOOD CHANCE OF SEA FOG RETURNING IN A WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
FOR COASTAL TAF SITES THIS EVENING, AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME,
WITH INCREASING CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS BY THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF LOW RESTRICTIONS IS AT SSI WHERE WE HAVE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN TO LIFR BY 00Z-03Z TONIGHT. WE COULD
SEE JAX, CRG, SGJ, AND VQQ LOWER TO IFR OR LESS BY THE
04Z-07Z TIME FRAME. GNV VIS RESTRICTION SHOULD EVOLVE BY 09Z.
MARINE
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
ALSO FOR PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLY PERSISTING OR LIKELY
REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND ITS AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CREATE A PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, LIKELY
SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE SEA FOG THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 NAUTICAL MILE
LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL BEACHES: MODERATE
TODAY AND FRIDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS INLAND SE GA FRIDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- MINRH LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER INLAND SE GA MONDAY
AFTERNOON
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING. FOG POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS TONIGHT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
THURSDAY, JANUARY 8TH:
KAMG: 79/2005
FRIDAY, JANUARY 9TH:
KJAX: 83/1974
KGNV: 83/1989
KAMG: 79/1974
KCRG: 81/2022
SATURDAY, JANUARY 10TH:
KJAX: 82/1957
KGNV: 85/1937
KAMG: 80/1949
KCRG: 79/2014
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 57 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 66 59 71 59 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 77 57 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 72 60 78 60 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 79 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 80 59 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ450-
452-454-470-472.
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