605
FXUS62 KJAX 090002
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
702 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY FOR EASTERN AREAS.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED. DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUES INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FURTHER INLAND
- RECORD WARMTH FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- INLAND LIGHT FREEZES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. WIDESPREAD FROST
POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INLAND
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING
UPDATE
PRIMARY IMPACTS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXTENT OF DENSE FOG,
WHICH HAS BEEN ONGOING OVER MOST COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEGUN FOR COASTAL
COUNTIES, AND WILL BEGIN AT 8 PM EST FOR INLAND AREAS IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE REGION AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
(1026 MILLIBARS) CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA, WITH THIS
FEATURE EXTENDING ITS AXIS DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
ALOFT...RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WAS DEFLECTING A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION CONTINUES TO PUSH A VEIL OF HIGH
CLOUD COVER EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH THIS CLOUD COVER
MASKING STUBBORN LOW STRATUS AND DENSE SEA FOG THAT IS
PERSISTING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL COMMUNITIES, GENERALLY
FROM ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH NORTHWARD. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS HAVE
ALSO PERSISTED AT LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS IN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS AT THESE LOCATIONS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS OF
19Z. WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OTHERWISE DEVELOPING A CUMULUS FIELD
BENEATH THE THINNER HIGH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST
OF OUR AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 70S AND
TOUCHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING, MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
GULF STREAM WATERS ADJACENT TO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THIS FEATURE
CONTINUING TO DEFLECT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY EARLY FRIDAY, WHILE ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WELL TO THE NORTH
OF OUR REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
DENSE SEA FOG BLANKETING SOME OF OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL
COMMUNITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED SLOWLY INLAND
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ITS INLAND TREK THIS EVENING, WITH FOG
LIKELY ADVECTING ACROSS THE I-95 EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
SPREADING INLAND TO THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WAS HIGH ENOUGH RADIATION
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND TOWARDS THE I-75
CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND AND AROUND 60 AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY, RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS A TROUGH
REMAINS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND WSW ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5- 10 MPH WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE TURNING WINDS SE AT THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AFTER MORNING DENSE FOG WITH
PATCHY FOG PERSISTING ALONG THE SE GA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION) INLAND WITH LOW 80S WEST OF I-95 WHILE STAYING
IN THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG THE SE GA COAST AND THE MID/UPPER 70S
OVER THE NE FL COAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT, COOLING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG TO SHIFT INLAND TO THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 60F WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
SATURDAY, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHIFTING SE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WHILE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD
HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW 80S AND INTO THE UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY OVER SE GA BY SUNRISE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUNDAY, A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT MOVING OVER SE GA IN
THE MORNING AND INTO NE FL IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO STRONGER FORCING
STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY WITH A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS PLATEAU ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A LIGHT ADVECTIVE FREEZE OVER
INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-10. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE HIGH SINKING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
LOWER MS VALLEY TURNING WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY. ANOTHER
INLAND FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA AND DECREASING WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR FROST POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT AWAY
TO THE ENE AS A AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AGAIN OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND SPUR A DEVELOPING
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INTO SE GA.
SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL NEED TO BE REFINED BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS FOR MORE PRECISE RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT THE SYSTEM MAY
BRING A WETTING RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL IMPACT
THROUGH THE NEXT 12+ HOURS, AS EXPECTING DENSE FOG NEARING COASTAL
TERMINALS TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECTING
ALL AIRFIELDS TO REACH LIFR RESTRICTIONS, WITH THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY BEING AT GNV DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND THE FOG
PENETRATES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM ABOUT 15Z
ONWARD, THOUGH SSI AND SGJ WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PERIODS
OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER AS EXPECTING SEA FOG TO ALSO
LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS
OTHERWISE AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS DURING PEAK
DAYLIGHT FRIDAY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
ALSO FOR PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLY PERSISTING OR LIKELY
REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND ITS AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CREATE A PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, LIKELY
SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE SEA FOG THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 NAUTICAL MILE
LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AT ALL AREA
BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS TODAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- MINRH LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER INLAND SE GA MONDAY
AFTERNOON
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP VERY LIGHT WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH INLAND 3-5 MPH AND 5-10 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AS WEAK ATLANTIC SEABREEZE DEVELOPS EASTERLY WINDS AT THE
COAST TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP DISPERSIONS IN THE POOR RANGE.
CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FRIDAY WITH FOG LINGERING IN
THE MORNING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
AT THE COAST.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVE
SUNDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT. INCREASING WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL CREATE HIGH
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS TO START NEXT WEEK WITH MINRH VALUES NEARING
CRITICAL VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG RETURNS
THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. INLAND FREEZE POTENTIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN INLAND
FREEZE AND FROST POTENTIALLY INLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 57 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 59 72 58 76 / 0 0 10 0
JAX 57 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 60 79 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 59 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 59 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ024-038-132-
137-225-232-237-325-425-433-533-633.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ134>136-
151>153-165-264.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-
470.
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