770
FXUS62 KJAX 161051
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
551 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HARD FREEZE INLAND, LIGHT FREEZE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 9 AM, WITH WIDESPREAD
FROST EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST
FL THROUGH 9 AM FOR WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20-25 DEGREES.
- LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.
- AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE INLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, LIGHT FREEZES
ELSEWHERE INLAND. FROST POTENTIAL AT COASTAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CURRENT OBS SHOW TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS SE GA AND NE FL, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP
FURTHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD
RAMPING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S, WITH THE COLDEST LOCATIONS ACROSS INLAND
SE GA AND NE FL. THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE AREA-WIDE
THROUGH 9AM, WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FOR INLAND SE GA AND NE
FL. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NE FL
THROUGH 9AM AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING TO THE LOWER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING,
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY DAWN. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD, ONLY CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY,
A BIG CHANGE FROM THE GUSTY CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY. DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST TO END THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S AREA-
WIDE, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER NE FL. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY.
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH LOWER 40S ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A REINFORCING TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THIS TROUGH
SHARPENING AS IT TRAVERSES THE OZARKS, TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR
THE VERY DRY AIR MASS TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, WITH PWATS CLIMBING UP TOWARDS ONE INCH FOR
LOCATIONS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY TOWARDS SUNSET. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL INDUCE
ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS
TOWARDS SUNSET FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF WAYCROSS AND LAKE CITY.
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BOOSTING HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF WAYCROSS AND LAKE
CITY, WHILE THICKER CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF WAYCROSS AND
LAKE CITY.
A SHARPENING TROUGH WILL THEN PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE SUNSET ON SUNDAY EVENING. A
170-KNOT JET STREAK AT 250 MILLIBARS (AROUND 35,000 FEET)
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHARPENING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS, WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THIS JET STREAK PROGRESSING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE PREDAWN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING AHEAD
OF A SHARP ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWATS OF
1 - 1.2 INCHES) ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE OUR AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND ONE-HALF INCH FORECAST
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10, WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE-TENTH
TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10.
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARP
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION PERSISTS INTO THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A COOLING
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY ARRIVE IN TIME FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF WAYCROSS IN
SOUTHEAST GA ON SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW DEPARTING SNOW FLURRIES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST GA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND NOON BEFORE LIFT
WEAKENS AND A DRIER AIR MASS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS OUR AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON SUNDAY
MORNING, LIMITING ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION BEYOND A
COATING ON GRASSY SURFACES. THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE SIMILAR TO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENTS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED IN SOUTHEAST
GA IN JANUARY 2025 AND 2018, AS ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW EXISTS ON
SUNDAY MORNING FOR A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER THE NOON HOUR.
LIGHT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
THEN DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS ANOTHER COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO OUR
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 AND 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I- 10,
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL A FEW DEGREES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.
THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING THAT WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. OUR
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THIS STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY FROM OUR REGION, BUT A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, AS THE CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS STATES. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND, RANGING TO THE LOWER 30S AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY (25 DEGREES OR LOWER) FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL BY THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE PLAINS STATES TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO
MID 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS, WITH ADDITIONAL HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE
FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH LIGHT FREEZES ELSEWHERE INLAND, ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
FROST. FROST MAY EXTEND TO COASTAL LOCATIONS LATE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
VEERING TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY, LIKELY
KEEPING COASTAL LOWS IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, POSSIBLY ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM TO MIGRATE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY HIGH
ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY THICKEN OVER OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH LONG-TERM MODEL BLENDS
INTRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OUR REGION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING
DEVELOPS IN A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE JANUARY CLIMATOLOGY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S, EXCEPT UPPER
60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. ONE MORE FROSTY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHERE LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 30S, WITH 40S FORECAST ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S, EXCEPT LOWER 70S FOR NORTH
CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REACH ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THROUGHOUT OUR REGION.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS. MEANWHILE, NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT
THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS, WHILE WINDS INLAND DIMINISH TOWARDS
SUNSET.
MARINE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WHILE WEAKENING, ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CROSSING OUR LOCAL WATERS
ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
THEN STRENGTHEN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHOUT OUR
LOCAL WATERS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING BREEZY NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER OUR WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES: LOW THROUGH SATURDAY
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES: LOW TODAY, MODERATE ON SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY, WITH
LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY LATE THIS MORNING FOR INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. SLOWLY
INCREASING TRANSPORT SPEEDS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL
CREATE FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, WHILE LIGHTER
SPEEDS ELSEWHERE CREATE POOR VALUES, EXCEPT LOW VALUES FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT
WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10, CREATING GENERALLY FAIR
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON SATURDAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. LIGHTER SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10, WHERE POOR VALUES ARE FORECAST, WITH MARGINALLY
LOW VALUES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. BREEZY NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS FORECAST AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A LONG DURATION HARD FREEZE IS
EXPECTED FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A LIGHT FREEZE AND
WIDESPREAD FROST EXTENDING TO COASTAL LOCATIONS. A LIGHT INLAND
FREEZE AND FROST IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW FOR
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS ON SUNDAY, WITH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY FORECAST. ADDITIONAL HARD INLAND FREEZES
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS,
WITH LIGHT FREEZES AND FROST POTENTIALLY EXTENDING TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING...
BELOW ARE RECORDS FOR CLIMATE SITES AND YEAR IN WHICH THEY OCCURRED.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
JAN 16TH:
JAX: 22/1927
GNV: 20/1927
AMG: 21/1948
CRG: 25/1978
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 55 33 65 37 / 0 0 20 60
SSI 51 40 65 40 / 0 0 0 50
JAX 56 33 70 42 / 0 0 0 40
SGJ 54 39 70 45 / 0 0 0 30
GNV 58 32 72 44 / 0 0 0 40
OCF 58 32 72 46 / 0 0 0 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-
023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-
225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-
533-633.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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