658
FXUS62 KJAX 161857
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
157 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY INLAND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
- AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE INLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
- RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY ON SUNDAY FOR FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
- LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
- WIDESPREAD FREEZES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HARD
FREEZES POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, LIGHT FREEZES ELSEWHERE
INLAND. FROST POTENTIAL AT COASTAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COOL AND DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL, CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. THE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY START TO DRIFT EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST - THOUGH ANY IMPACTS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
50S AREA WIDE WITH ONLY A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZE STARTING TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
TONIGHT, THE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL START TO PICK UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AREAS AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS A BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET RATHER QUICKLY
BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE WIND STARTS TO STIR UP
THE RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT AND SOME CLOUDS START TO FILL IN AS
WELL, AND THEREFORE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER STEADY OR
POSSIBLY WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. THESE
FACTORS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL, AND THEREFORE
HAVE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER HTE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY
THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
AS A SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES DIVES SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL CREATE
SW FLOW OVERHEAD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE ENE WITH
SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY INLAND UNDER MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BY SUNSET NEAR US 441 IN SE GA. HIGHS REBOUND TO
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-10 AND AROUND 70 SOUTH OF I-10 WITH LOW 70S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS INLAND
SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, BECOMING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD IN
THE PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT 5-10 MPH, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NW OF WAYCROSS. ABOVE FREEZING
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION RAIN
FOR THROUGH SUNRISE.
SUNDAY, THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND ITS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
ROLL THROUGH THE FL GULF COAST AND ALONG WITH A POTENT JET STREAM
CRANKING UP TO 170 KTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CREATE STRONG LIFT
AS OUR AREA FALLS WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE REGION,
WHICH WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS SHIFTING FROM THE FL BIG BEND NE
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND ACROSS SE GA DURING THE MORNING TO
MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE OVERSPREADING EASTWARD ALONG I-10 AND TO THE
NE FL COAST. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING MIDDAY OVER NW PORTIONS
OF SE GA WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE 20S INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PROVIDE WET BULBING
EFFECT TO INDUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SHORT WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM DOUGLAS TO BAXLEY NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE TIMING WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, MID DAYLIGHT HOURS, AND BRIEF WINDOW
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL PREVENT ACCUMULATION TO ROADS AND BRIDGES
WHICH WILL BE TOO WARM, BUT A VERY LIGHT COATING ON GRASSY SURFACES
COULD OCCUR IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE IF PRECIP RATES ARE FAST
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AGAIN, NOT
EXPECTING IMPACTS TO ROADS DUE TO THE TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS SHOWERS END OVER SE GA
COAST, A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOWFLAKES COULD FALL, BUT NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED AND THE EVENT WILL BE ALL RAIN OVER NE FL.
SHOWERS WILL END MID AFTERNOON OVER INLAND SE GA AND EXIT INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY SUNSET. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE
AROUND HALF INCH OVER SE GA AND LIGHTER OVER NE FL WITH A QUARTER
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS, LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S OVER INLAND SE GA AND THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S ALONG I-10 AND THE SE GA COAST WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND FLAGLER COAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE TX GULF COAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER
WITH BRISK NW WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL CAUSE OUR
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WELL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S INLAND. A FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FOR HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS RETURNING TO INLAND SE GA AND INLAND
NE FL WITH A LIGHT FREEZE INTO THE COAST AND DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE.
ENOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS 4-8 MPH WILL ALSO CREATE POTENTIAL COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY DEEP BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE EAST
COAST THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY SWINGS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE OZARKS AND TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY, SENDING A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING THAT WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A COLD
AND DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE STRONG
HIGH BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL
FREEZE TUESDAY AM OVER SE GA AND AND INLAND NE FL AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHERE A POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE COULD IMPACT INLAND
SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WHILE NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS PROTECT
THE NE FL COAST FROM A LIGHT FREEZE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT AWAY INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE
GULF COAST THAT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA
FRIDAY, BUT STILL TOO EARLY FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS A AT THIS TIME
AND ONLY HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NOW AT THIS
JUNCTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN TREND TO AROUND NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS TODAY, WITH
LIGHT WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL
START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH NO
OPERATIONAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER AREA WATERS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, GRADUALLY INDUCING MORE OF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND. ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CROSSING OUR LOCAL WATERS
ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL
WATERS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING BREEZY NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
START TO POSITION NORTH OF OUR WATERS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW SATURDAY
NE FL MODERATE SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY INLAND TODAY
LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES TODAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL AND
- THE COASTS
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY, WITH LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COASTAL COMMUNITIES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION, COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOW/POOR DISPERSIONS ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHEAST FL. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
INTERIOR GA, WHERE FAIR DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10, CREATING
GENERALLY FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON SATURDAY DESPITE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE MIX WITH SNOW OVER FAR INTERIOR
GA. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A LIGHT INLAND FREEZE AND AREAS OF
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET OR
LIGHT SNOW FOR LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS ON SUNDAY, WITH
NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY FORECAST. ADDITIONAL HARD
INLAND FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, WITH LIGHT FREEZES AND FROST POTENTIALLY
EXTENDING TO COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 33 65 36 45 / 0 10 70 80
SSI 43 65 40 51 / 0 0 50 90
JAX 34 70 41 53 / 0 0 40 90
SGJ 40 69 44 57 / 0 0 30 80
GNV 34 72 44 55 / 0 0 40 70
OCF 33 72 46 56 / 0 0 30 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
433-522-533-633.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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