281
FXUS62 KJAX 171104
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
604 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR COFFEE & JEFF
DAVIS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GA. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE
HALF INCH POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA ON SUNDAY MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, LIGHT FREEZES
ELSEWHERE INLAND. FROST POTENTIAL AT COASTAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20- 25 EARLY
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING. WITH THE ADVANCING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AS LOWS REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND THE 40S ALONG THE COAST. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT AWAY FROM THE FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER, MOIST AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES, WITH PWATS RISING TO 1+" FOR MOST LOCATIONS
BY SATURDAY EVENING. WITH WARMER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S ACROSS SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NE FL, WHILE THE REST OF NE FL WILL
WARM TO THE 70S.
WITH THE FRONT NEARING THE REGION, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS, WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS SE GA, WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS NE FL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE BASE OF A REINFORCING TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE QUICKLY ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD BY SUNDAY EVENING. A 170-KNOT JET STREAK AT 250
MILLIBARS (AROUND 35,000 FEET) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHARPENING
TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON SUNDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ONLY SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THIS JET STREAK WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM
AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH AROUND NOON, DEVELOPING A WEAK WAVE OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
TRAVERSING OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING ALONG AND BEHIND
THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWATS OF 1 - 1.3 INCHES) ALLOWING FOR
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO TRAVERSE OUR AREA, MAINLY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MID-PORTIONS OF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOLING ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT
WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW PORTIONS OF
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH AND WEST OF WAYCROSS, AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
THROUGH THE 30S DUE TO WET BULBING AND DYNAMIC COOLING IN THIS
DEVELOPING COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL MAY ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH
ACROSS COFFEE AND JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES, MAINLY ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES, AS ANTECEDENT RAINFALL LIKELY KEEPS MOST ROAD
SURFACES WET RATHER THAN ICY. THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE SIMILAR TO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENTS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED IN SOUTHEAST
GA IN JANUARY 2025 AND 2018, AS ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW EXISTS FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS IN TALLAHASSEE AND PEACHTREE CITY (GA), WE
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COFFEE AND JEFF DAVIS
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GA ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT SHOULD BE AROUND OR LESS
THAN ONE HALF INCH.
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON
ON SUNDAY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR,
WITH AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-10 FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST FROM
THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH SUNSET, WITH A CHILLY
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON SUNDAY, EXCEPT LOWER 50S FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
THE WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY FROM OUR REGION, BUT A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND,
RANGING TO THE LOW OR MID 30S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL
VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY (25 DEGREES OR
LOWER) FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL BY THE PREDAWN AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. FREEZE WATCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
POSTED FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
A REINFORCING ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY, SETTLING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS
SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE, EXCEPT UPPER
50S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES STATES ON MONDAY
NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, LIKELY ADVECTING A VEIL OF
CIRRUS ACROSS OUR SKIES TOWARDS THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR AREA AS OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE
DUE TO THE UPSTREAM ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOME BUILDING INTO OUR
REGION, WHICH COULD DROP WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO NEAR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER HARD
FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WITH A LIGHT FREEZE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE INLAND AND ALSO FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA,
WITH LOWS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL DUE TO A STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION ON
TUESDAY WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK AS A REINFORCING
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN
PUSHING ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH COASTAL
TROUGHING DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS OUR NEAR
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS HELPING TO INCREASE MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. INLAND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA TO THE UPPER 60S FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST FL, WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THICKENING CLOUD COVER
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AREA-
WIDE, WITH A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND A LIGHT
NORTHERLY BREEZE RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE 40S ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LOWER 50S FOR COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN GULF SHOULD DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE GULF AND THE
FL PENINSULA. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT / OVERRUNNING TO
THE NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD
DEVELOP A FEW WAVES OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS OUR
REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10. DESPITE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES, WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY, EXCEPT AROUND 70 FOR
NORTH CENTRAL FL. LOWS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S, EXCEPT LOW AND MID 50S FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD THEN
BRING A MORE PACIFIC TYPE OF AIR MASS INSTEAD OF ARCTIC TO OUR
AREA FROM LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE / WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD CLIMB TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
I-10, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FOR INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-10.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 07Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
APPROACHING SSI AFTER 08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD
THE REGIONAL TERMINALS TOWARDS SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AS SHOWERS
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 16Z, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z, WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT, WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR LOCAL WATERS AS THIS FRONT
PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK, KEEPING BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR
ONSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MAY SPREAD A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NE FL MODERATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF WAYCROSS IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL WILL THEN OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF OUR AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, WITH RAIN
LIKELY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WITH
ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. RAINFALL ELSEWHERE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST OF COLD AND DRY AIR THEN PUSHING
INTO OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MID PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
SUSTAINED AT ONLY 5-10 MPH WILL RESULT IN POOR DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY,
WITH MARGINALLY LOW VALUES FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WHILE FAIR
VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD OUR AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH THESE BREEZY WINDS COUNTERING WIDESPREAD MORNING CLOUD
COVER TO CREATE GENERALLY FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES. GOOD
VALUES ARE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF WAYCROSS, WHERE
CLEARING SKIES ARE FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR REGION, DROPPING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LONG DURATIONS OF
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A LIGHT INLAND FREEZE AND AREAS OF
FROST ARE FORECAST FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. HARD INLAND FREEZES ARE LIKELY FOR
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS, WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LIGHT FREEZES AND
FROST POTENTIALLY MAY EXTEND TO COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 35 42 24 / 10 90 80 0
SSI 64 40 47 30 / 0 70 90 0
JAX 71 41 48 26 / 0 50 90 0
SGJ 70 44 51 33 / 0 40 80 0
GNV 72 44 50 27 / 0 50 80 0
OCF 72 46 53 26 / 0 40 70 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
433-522-533-633.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ023-024-030-
031-035-136-137-140-225-232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-
522.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ134>136-
151>153-165-250-264-350-364.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
GAZ132-133.
MARINE...NONE.
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