426
FXUS62 KJAX 172347
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
647 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ON SUN MORNING FOR COFFEE, JEFF DAVIS,
- ATKINSON, APPLING AND BACON COUNTIES. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN
AN INCH POSSIBLE ON GRASSY & ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOISTED FOR SUNDAY FOR NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HARD
FREEZES POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, LIGHT FREEZES ELSEWHERE
INLAND. FROST POTENTIAL AT COASTAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20- 25 EARLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL OF
SE GA AND MOST OF NE FL, BUT NOT BEFORE MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS SE GA AND AROUND 70F ACROSS MOST OF NE
FL. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT OF THE THICKENING
CLOUDS ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF INLAND NORTH FL LATE
IN THE DAY NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH INLAND SE
GA THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE 40S, WHILE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR RAINFALL TO SPREAD INTO COASTAL SE GA AND INTO NE FL
TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL BE A COLD RAIN AS TEMPS FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND LOWER/MIDDLE 40S
ELSEWHERE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH ANY OF THE WINTRY MIX
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR INLAND SE GA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 0.25" FOR INLAND SE GA AND
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF INLAND NORTH FL AND 0.10" OR LESS FOR COASTAL
SE GA AND THE REST OF NE FL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF SUNDAY, BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ABOUT THE I-10 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
GROW WITH RESPECT TO SOME WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS OVER FAR INTERIOR
GA, WITH JEFF DAVIS, APPLING, BACON, COFFEE, AND ATKINSON COUNTIES
NOW ALL IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERALL STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS ANY
SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MOST OF THE
GROUND WILL BE TOO WARM. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF UP TO
AROUND 0.5" WILL BE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS OF THESE COUNTIES, WHICH
WILL MAINLY OCCUR ON GRASS OR UNPAVED ROADS. AS RAINFALL STARTS TO
WRAP UP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, A FEW SNOWFLAKES
COULD MIX IN WITH SUBSIDING SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS AREAS
SUCH AS WAYCROSS, JESUP, HOMERVILLE, HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATION WOULD
BE EXPECTED. IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS, GENERALLY AROUND 0.25-0.33"
SOUTH OF I-10 WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND UP TO 0.5-0.75" THE
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO GEORGIA YOU GO. HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY THANKS TO THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH OF I-10, AND 50S SOUTH.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILL INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE LIKELY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA, AND HARD FREEZE INLAND. FREEZE WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE WHOLE AREA, AND WILL ALSO BE FLIRTING WITH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING AS WELL ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST FL. ADDITIONS/UPGRADES OF THESE PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN TERMS
OF NUMERIC VALUES, GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR, AND
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TOWARDS THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE AMIDST A
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DESPITE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES,
HIGH TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
FOR MOST. ANOTHER INLAND FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A LIGHT FREEZE AND/OR SOME FROST LIKELY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS WELL: LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND
25-30F INLAND LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF I-95.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
TO NORTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY ONSHORE FLOW. GUIDANCE IS THEN RATHER
SPLIT ON THE IMPACTS OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY,
WITH THE GFS INDICATING A MUCH DRIER AND QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
THE EURO BRINGING HIGHER MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BE NARROWED DOWN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY MODERATE MID WEEK WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW, REMAINING NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTER
ANOTHER DAY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 10-12 HOUR WINDOW, THEN MVFR CEILINGS
ARRIVE BY 11Z/12Z WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR CEILINGS BY 14Z WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ELEVATING TO 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MODERATE SHOWERS
WILL LOWER VISIBILITY TO 3-5 MILES AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE FRONT INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS
FROM 14Z TO 18-20Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AS A SURGE OF WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW
ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
AFTER 18-20Z, SHOWERS WILL END WEST TO EAST WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1.0
TO 1.5 KFT BECOMING FEW TO SCATTERED UNDER THINNING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST AND LESSEN TO UNDER 10 KNOTS
INLAND AT GNV AND VQQ. SKIES WILL CLEAR AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
MARINE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
LOCAL WATERS AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER MIDNIGHT,
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR
ONSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MAY SPREAD A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE SUNDAY
NE FL MODERATE SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND GA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THOUGH PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL BE PRIMARILY A BENEFICIAL RAIN, THOUGH SOME SNOW
WILL MIX IN AT TIMES OVER FAR INTERIOR GA, THOUGH ACCUMULATION, IF
ANY, IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. DESPITE STRONGER WINDS
COMPARED TO FRIDAY, DISPERSIONS WILL STILL BE ONLY IN THE FAIR RANGE
FOR MOST TODAY, AND BORDERLINE POOR IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS
COASTAL GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO
GOOD SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY ONCE PRECIP COMES TO AN
END.
ANOTHER COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY, DROPPING MINRH VALUES AROUND 30-35% MONDAY AND CLOSER TO 25-
30% BY TUESDAY. FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY DESPITE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON SUNDAY.
HARD INLAND FREEZES ARE LIKELY FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY ON
MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE
EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR. LIGHT FREEZES AND FROST POTENTIALLY MAY EXTEND TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 37 44 24 51 / 100 100 0 0
SSI 42 51 31 53 / 70 100 0 0
JAX 43 53 26 56 / 60 100 0 0
SGJ 48 58 32 56 / 30 90 0 0
GNV 46 54 27 57 / 50 90 0 0
OCF 47 56 27 57 / 50 80 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
433-522-533-633.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
GAZ132>135-149.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ450-
452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
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