217
FXUS62 KJAX 180846
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
346 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF LESS
THAN 1 INCH POSSIBLE ON GRASSY & ELEVATED SURFACES. COUNTIES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTED: COFFEE, JEFF DAVIS, APPLING, ATKINSON,
AND BACON. RAIN MAY END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW FLURRIES FOR THE
REST OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS.
- WIDESPREAD NIGHTLY FREEZES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HARD FREEZE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LIGHT FREEZES EXTEND TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. LOW WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 20-25 DEGREES EARLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
(1031 MILLIBARS) BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT. ALOFT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS
PIVOTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WAS SHARPENING A LONGWAVE TROUGH
THAT WAS DIVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. A POWERFUL JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 150 KNOTS AT 250
MILLIBARS (AROUND 35,000 FEET) WAS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
TROUGHING AND WAS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
NORTHEASTWARD TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THIS JET STREAK WAS RESULTING IN AN EXPANDING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM COASTAL
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REGION.
LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER WAS OVERSPREADING
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHILE THICKENING MID
AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDINESS WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND THE REST OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE
SLOWLY FALLING TO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE FOR LOCATIONS NORTHWEST
OF WAYCROSS AT 08Z, WITH VALUES ELSEWHERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION PERHAPS LINGERING DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THAN FORECAST IN PRIOR FORECAST CYCLES AS A FRONTAL WAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF TRAVERSES NORTH CENTRAL FL
THIS MORNING AND THEN ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD WHILE ORGANIZING
INTO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH
THE 40S DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA,
FALLING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME FROM AROUND 9 AM - 1 PM FOR
ENOUGH COLD AIR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO SUPPORT
LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH RAINFALL. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET ENTRANCE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFALL RATES ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
OCMULGEE / UPPER ALTAMAHA / ALAPAHA RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST GA
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGHER RAIN RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR WET BULBING TO COOL TO THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ENOUGH
TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW BY THE NOON HOUR FOR LOCATIONS WEST AND
NORTH OF ALMA, WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THESE LOCATIONS WEST AND NORTH
OF ALMA WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW ONE HALF INCH,
MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH PRECEDING THIS CHANGEOVER SHOULD KEEP ROADS
MAINLY WET, WITH A FEW SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE FOR BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES FOR LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 30S. RAIN MAY END
AS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS FROM WAYCROSS NORTH
AND WESTWARD.
THE SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA, WHICH WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR 40 DEGREES, MELTING ANY
SNOWFALL THAT MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO RAPIDLY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY
DRYING OUT ROADWAYS ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS EVENING. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10, WITH HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10. A 40-50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY JET AT 850 MILLIBARS (AROUND 5,000 FEET) WILL
TRAVERSE OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS RAINFALL ENDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
STEADILY STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH LIKELY
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-10. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND MOST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL
WILL TUMBLE THROUGH THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DROPPING WIND CHILL VALUES TO THE 20S FOR
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE 30S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN EARLY THIS
EVENING, BUT A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS, ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE FRIGID
AIR MASS THAT WILL BE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION. FREEZE WATCHES
WERE UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNINGS TONIGHT, WITH A LONG DURATION,
HARD ADVECTIVE FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF
JACKSONVILLE, WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 20S. A LIGHT
FREEZE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND WILL EXTEND TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. THE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE
WILL DROP WIND CHILL VALUES TO THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, PROMPTING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. WIND
CHILL VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE 20 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS 20
DEGREES OR BELOW.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR MASS WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST,
RESULTING IN A MORE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE
IN THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER INLAND AREAS WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MORE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PRESSES DOWN OVER GEORGIA FROM OUT OF THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY
HIGH AND MIN TEMPS RISING TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
BEFORE THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR AT JAX AND WILL LOWER ELSEWHERE
AT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS BY 10Z AS LIGHT SHOWERS
APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
FORECAST TOWARDS 14Z AS MODERATE RAINFALL RATES AND LOWERING
CEILINGS DEVELOP. MEANWHILE, CEILINGS AT GNV AND SGJ SHOULD
LOWER TO MVFR BY 12Z AS LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE WEST,
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND OR AFTER 15Z AS MODERATE
RAINFALL RATES AND LOWER CEILINGS ARRIVE. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY TOWARDS 18Z/19Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS, WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL ENDING AND CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR BY 22Z,
FOLLOWED BY VFR PREVAILING TOWARDS 00Z MONDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH AROUND 08Z, FOLLOWED BY SURFACE WINDS ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 11Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY AS CEILINGS LOWER AND
MODERATE RAINFALL DEVELOPS TOWARDS 15Z, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY THROUGH AROUND 19Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 22Z, WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 00Z MONDAY.
MARINE
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING,
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SHOWERS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER STRENGTHENS
WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY, KEEPING BREEZY NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY OVER OUR
NEAR SHORE WATERS, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES - LOW TODAY AND MONDAY
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES - MODERATE TODAY, LOW ON MONDAY
FIRE WEATHER
AREA-WIDE SHOWERS AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST, DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL OCCURRING OVER DEEP INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WITH
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MINRH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND
30S OVER INLAND AREAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TODAY. HARD INLAND FREEZES ARE LIKELY
FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.
LIGHT FREEZES AND FROST POTENTIALLY MAY EXTEND TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 45 25 51 25 / 100 0 0 0
SSI 51 30 54 34 / 90 0 0 0
JAX 52 27 56 30 / 90 0 0 0
SGJ 57 33 56 37 / 90 0 0 0
GNV 54 28 57 30 / 90 0 0 0
OCF 55 28 57 30 / 90 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
433-522-533-633.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLZ021-
023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-
225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-
533-633.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ132>135-149.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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