192
FXUS62 KJAX 201054
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
554 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FREEZES & FROST CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. FREEZE
WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA, THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHEAST FL TO THE WEST OF JACKSONVILLE. WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED IN THE FREEZE WATCH AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION. RECENT
FREEZES WILL RESULT IN DRYING OF AVAILABLE FUELS. CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1034
MILLIBARS) POSITIONED OVER THE OZARKS, TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS SITUATED OVER
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION, WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PIVOTING EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING TOWARDS OUR REGION IS KEEPING
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY TIGHTER TONIGHT, CREATING A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE IN PLACE, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE MOSTLY
DECOUPLED, WHERE TEMPERATURES AT 06Z WERE NEAR FREEZING, WHILE
COASTAL TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 25-30 DEGREES THROUGHOUT OUR
AREA.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS MORNING, TIGHTENING OUR LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
BREEZY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL
FLATTEN OUT, WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AT THE BASE OF THIS LIFTING TROUGH. THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO ADVECT SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUD COVER INTO OUR REGION
TOWARDS SUNRISE TODAY, WITH HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER BEGINNING
TO THICKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOLLOWING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
FREEZE FOR ALL INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 EARLY
THIS MORNING, RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND
SLIGHTLY TODAY DESPITE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY CLIMBING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S, EXCEPT LOWER 60S
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING, BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS EVOLUTION
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, KEEPING COASTAL LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
ALTHOUGH HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
THICKEN, DECOUPLING WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND A VERY AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 IN SOUTHEAST GA AND FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST FL (WEST OF DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE). A LIGHT
FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
EXISTING FREEZE WATCH WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE MOST OF
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS ABOUT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 60S
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SIMILARLY
WARM WITH MIN TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 40S OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
PRESSES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
MOST ABUNDANT RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
INITIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN TO BE BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AS COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SETTLES IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. HIGH
ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY
AND WILL THICKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
SUSTAINED 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BY
15Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 16Z. NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARDS 00Z
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
TUESDAY EVENING, MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS TODAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ITS AXIS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, PROVIDING FOR STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY THAT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES: LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES: MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON WEDNESDAY
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINRH VALUES
WILL RANGE WITHIN THE 20S AND 30S TODAY WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND RETURNING FOR INLAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY. AREAS OF
LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION ARE FORECAST FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON
WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND WAYCROSS NORTHWESTWARD. POTENTIAL FOR LOW
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ANOTHER INLAND FREEZE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 55 29 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 56 39 61 49 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 58 34 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 58 45 67 53 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 60 36 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 61 38 71 51 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-038-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-232-236-237-
240-322-340-422-425-522-533-633.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-035-120-220-322-422-522.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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