577
FXUS62 KJAX 201424
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
924 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FREEZE & FROST TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. FREEZE
WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA, THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHEAST FL TO THE WEST OF JACKSONVILLE. WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED IN THE FREEZE WATCH AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION. RECENT
FREEZES WILL RESULT IN DRYING OF AVAILABLE FUELS. CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
UPDATE
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, WITH THE FREEZE WATCH
REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE NEXT
PACKAGE, THE FREEZE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING AS
ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS SE GA, SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NORTHEAST FL, AND
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE JAX METRO.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1034
MILLIBARS) POSITIONED OVER THE OZARKS, TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS SITUATED OVER
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION, WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING
EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDING TOWARDS OUR REGION IS KEEPING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY TIGHTER TONIGHT, CREATING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE IN PLACE, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WINDS
AT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE MOSTLY DECOUPLED, WHERE TEMPERATURES AT 06Z
WERE NEAR FREEZING, WHILE COASTAL TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER
30S TO THE MID 40S. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 25-30 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT OUR AREA.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS MORNING, TIGHTENING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL FLATTEN OUT, WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AT THE BASE OF THIS LIFTING TROUGH.
THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUD
COVER INTO OUR REGION TOWARDS SUNRISE TODAY, WITH HIGH ALTITUDE
CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO THICKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOLLOWING
A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE FOR ALL INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 EARLY THIS MORNING, RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
REBOUND SLIGHTLY TODAY DESPITE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY CLIMBING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S, EXCEPT LOWER 60S FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING, BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT, KEEPING COASTAL LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. ALTHOUGH HIGH
ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THICKEN, DECOUPLING
WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND A VERY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN ONE
MORE NIGHT OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 IN
SOUTHEAST GA AND FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST FL (WEST OF DOWNTOWN
JACKSONVILLE). A LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS
ABOUT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH SURFACE WINDS
SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 60S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO THE LOWER
70S FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL SIMILARLY WARM WITH MIN TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 40S OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES DOWN INTO
THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MOST ABUNDANT RAINFALL
OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. INITIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SETTLES IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. HIGH ALTITUDE
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND WILL
THICKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED 5
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BY 15Z, WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 16Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
TUESDAY EVENING, MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS TO OUR LOCAL WATERS TODAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ITS AXIS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, PROVIDING FOR STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY THAT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW WEDNESDAY
NE FL MODERATE WEDNESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON WEDNESDAY
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINRH VALUES WILL RANGE WITHIN
THE 20S AND 30S TODAY WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TODAY AND RETURNING FOR INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY. AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION ARE
FORECAST FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND WAYCROSS
NORTHWESTWARD. POTENTIAL FOR LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL LIGHTEN
WITH THE SUNRISE WITH INLAND FREEZES EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 55 29 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 56 39 61 49 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 58 34 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 58 45 67 53 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 60 36 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 61 38 71 51 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-035-120-220-322-422-522.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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