705
FXUS62 KJAX 202144
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FREEZE & FROST TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. FREEZE WARING TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA,
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES
- SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION. RECENT
FREEZES WILL RESULT IN DRYING OF AVAILABLE FUELS. CHANCES
FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
- VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA OVER THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AROUND THE EDGES OF THE
FREEZE WARNING FOR COASTAL SE GA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NE FL
WHERE TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 33-36F RANGE FOR THE FROST
ADVISORY ALONG WITH AREAS/WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, WHILE TEMPS OF 28-32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE FREEZE
WARNING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET IN THE
DRY AIR MASS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING NEAR
CALM OVER INLAND AREAS. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL THESE WILL REMAIN ON THE THIN SIDE SO
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOCAL
GRADIENT TIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS SE GA AND NE
FL, WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
TONIGHT...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST. SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT. LOCATIONS ACROSS INLAND SE GA
AND WEST OF THE JAX METRO ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY, WILL ONCE AGAIN FEEL TEMPERATURES NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING THIS EVENING, WHILE LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL FL AND ALONG
THE COAST WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A MAJORITY OF
THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD FROST WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AS WINDS
BEGIN TO DROP OFF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS BORDERING THE FREEZE WARNED LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BUT ANY
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
HELPING TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. SOME INCREASED
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SILENT (10 PERCENT) POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY, AND 70S FOR MOST AREA ON
THURSDAY. MID 60S MAY STILL BE REALIZED ON THURSDAY GIVEN SOME
NORTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SIMILARLY WARM WITH
MIN TEMPS 40-50 DEG WED NIGHT AND TO THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BY THURSDAY NIGHT INLAND
AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STRONG AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 1045 MB WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES AREA FRI
INTO SAT., WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SW U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TRIGGER
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF NEAR THE FL/GA STATE
LINE LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND THEN MOVE EAST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY. AS FAR TEMPS, ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, THEN
START TO BECOME BELOW NORMAL FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
NORTHEAST FL ON SATURDAY AS DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BEGIN TO
INCREASE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
NORTHEASTERLY. THE MAIN SFC LOW MOVING EAST OVER THE GULF AND INTO
NORTH FL (OR EVEN SOUTH GA) MAY HELP SHIFT THE INITIAL FRONT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS/RAIN
SHOULD FURTHER DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT PRESSES DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE NORTH. ONE OF THE
WEATHER CONCERNS IS ABOUT MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA WHERE SOME LOW CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR
WILL RESIDE IN PLACE THERE AT TIMES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
ON THIS POTENTIAL, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. MODEL
PROGS AND SOLUTIONS HAVE ALSO VARIED PAST 1-2 DAYS, AND SO THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS, WHICH ALSO LEADS TO SOME
CONCERNS FOR T-STORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST FL. AT THIS TIME, NO T-
STORMS ARE FORECAST, BUT EVENTUALLY WE MAY NEED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
T-STORM MENTION ON SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY FORECASTS HAVE
INCREASED. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OFFSHORE,
BASED ON CONSENSUS FORECASTS, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL FL CONTINUING TO PRESS SOUTH. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TO START THE NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER FREEZE AND A HARD FREEZE, FOR WELL INLAND ZONES, LOOKS
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. TUESDAY,
MOSTLY CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BUT CHILLY AND
DRY AIR AND ANOTHER FREEZE TUE NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AS HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BY 00Z, WHILE THE
OTHER TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE NORTHERLY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WINDS SHIFT
TO BE FROM THE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST BY THE 12Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING, MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS FOR
THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ITS AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
ON FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS, PROVIDING FOR STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
THAT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW WEDNESDAY
NE FL MODERATE WEDNESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND PARTS OF THE
- SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA ON WEDNESDAY
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE REST OF TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINRH VALUES WILL RANGE WITHIN
THE 20S AND 30S REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER FREEZE IS LIKELY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AREA. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME
MORE NORTHEASTERLY. AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION ARE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHEAST GA AND PART OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FREEZING AND FROST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHES OF FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 27 64 41 71 / 0 10 10 0
SSI 41 61 49 64 / 0 10 10 0
JAX 35 67 48 72 / 0 10 10 0
SGJ 43 68 52 70 / 0 10 10 10
GNV 35 71 49 76 / 0 10 10 10
OCF 36 73 50 76 / 0 10 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ021-023-024-120-220-322-422-522.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ030-031-
035-124-136-225-232-236-237-425.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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