122
FXUS62 KJAX 210831
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
331 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FREEZE WARNING & FROST ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST GA & INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL
FL
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA
- SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION. RECENT
FREEZES WILL RESULT IN DRYING OF AVAILABLE FUELS. CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1035
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA, WITH THE AXIS
OF THIS FEATURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE PLAINS
STATES. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE NATION CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY, WITH MOSTLY ZONAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE BASE OF THIS FILLING TROUGH
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. OTHERWISE, REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THESE FEATURES THEN PIVOTING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. FAST WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO ADVECT A VEIL OF MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR MOST OF OUR AREA. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A DRY AIR MASS
PERSISTS ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT PWATS HAVE REBOUNDED SLIGHTLY TO
THE 0.3 - 0.5 INCH RANGE. WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE
DECOUPLED, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE 30-35 DEGREE
RANGE AT MANY LOCATIONS AS OF 07Z. A DEVELOPING NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS WAS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S FOR LOCATIONS
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA / OCMULGEE RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST GA TO THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST.
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. FAST WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MILLIBARS (AROUND 10,000 FEET) WILL
CONTINUE, WITH A JET STREAK PROGRESSING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
LIKELY CREATING A THICKENING HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS
AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS. THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD PREVENT THE COASTAL TROUGH FROM
GENERATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND MARINE STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY VEER, SIGNALING A WARMING TREND FOR OUR REGION
FOLLOWING ANOTHER FROSTY START TO THE DAY AT MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS. FILTERED SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, WHILE
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL FL CLIMB TO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL GENERATE A COOL NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 THAT WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE, AS OUR RECENT COLD SPELL
HAS DROPPED SHELF WATERS OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
THICKENING MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, WITH PWATS
CLIMBING ABOVE 0.5 INCHES THIS EVENING AND THEN REACHING THE
0.75 - 1 INCH RANGE TOWARDS SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY CREATE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
CEILINGS ACROSS OUR REGION, BUT THICKENING CLOUD COVER ALOFT MAY
PREVENT THIS FROM OCCURRING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S, EXCEPT LOWER 50S FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A MUCH
STRONGER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE UPPER PLAINS REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE
US ON THURSDAY AND THEN APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN INLAND SE GA LATE
FRIDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. A
WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD WITH FLOW SHIFTING FROM ESE ON THURSDAY
TO SSW ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONABLE AND
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE SE GA COAST TO AROUND 80 IN
NORTH-CENTRAL FL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 50S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BRINGING A
RETURN OF INLAND MORNING FOG.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW U.S. OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TRIGGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE GULF. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF NEAR THE FL/GA STATE LINE LATER THIS WEEKEND,
AND THEN MOVE EAST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY. THESE TWO LOWS WILL HELP LIFT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER CENTRAL FL BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BUILDS INTO NE FL AND
POTENTIALLY SE GA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SE GA EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO NE FL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS AHEAD
OF THE GULF LOW BEGIN TO INCREASE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY. SHOWERS SHOULD FURTHER DEVELOP
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSES DOWN
INTO THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR DOWNWARD TREND ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS SE GA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES FOR WINTER WEATHER REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH THIS
WEEKEND SYSTEM.
THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AND ULTIMATELY WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE GULF LOW AND LOCATION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE WARM AIR BEING USHERED IN FROM THE SSW TO PRODUCE
FREEZING RAIN IN OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS NOW INCREASING FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS NE FL FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO AMPLE GULF MOISTURE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE A LARGE
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 50S TO LOW 80S. BY
MONDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL FL CONTINUING TO PRESS SOUTH.
OVERRUNNING CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION TO START THE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FREEZE AND A HARD
FREEZE, FOR WELL INLAND ZONES, LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. TUESDAY, MOSTLY CLEAR AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BUT CHILLY AND DRY AIR AND ANOTHER
FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE
SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WHERE WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
TOWARDS 13Z. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE INLAND TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH
WINDS THEN SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING TO 5-10
KNOTS BY 15Z. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARDS 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AT THE INLAND TERMINALS, WHILE WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING ITS AXIS
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY.
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WILL AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
WITH A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
OVERSPREAD OUR LOCAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
NEAR OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS STORM
SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS, RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES: MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES: MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY SHIFTING
WINDS TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY. LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN POOR DISPERSIONS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BUT GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN GOOD
DISPERSIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL FL TODAY. ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE MIXING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEK BUT
LIGHT WINDS WILL CAUSE FAIR TO POOR DISPERSIONS WITH POCKETS OF
LOW DISPERSIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FREEZING AND FROST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. PATCHY INLAND FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 64 42 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 63 47 65 52 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 68 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 66 53 70 54 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 71 49 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 73 50 77 52 / 0 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
120-220-322-422-522.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ030-031-035-
124-136-225-232-236-237-425.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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