417
FXUS62 KJAX 211328
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
828 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY
- ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL
FL
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS
- SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION
UPDATE
STARTING OFF ON A CHILLY MORNING AFTER A FREEZE OVER THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE DUE IN PART TO A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET AT 120-130 KT OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. EXPECT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
THICKEN MORE BY TONIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE UPDATE FOR TODAY
WAS TO ADJUST THE CLOUD COVER PERCENT HIGHER AND LOWER MAX TEMPS.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1035
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA, WITH THE AXIS OF
THIS FEATURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE, A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE PLAINS STATES.
ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
NATION CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY, WITH MOSTLY ZONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE BASE OF THIS FILLING TROUGH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
OTHERWISE, REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WITH THESE FEATURES THEN PIVOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. FAST WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA CONTINUES TO ADVECT A VEIL OF
MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR MOST OF OUR AREA. LATEST
GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT PWATS HAVE REBOUNDED
SLIGHTLY TO THE 0.3 - 0.5 INCH RANGE. WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE
DECOUPLED, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE 30-35 DEGREE RANGE
AT MANY LOCATIONS AS OF 07Z. A DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER,
WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. DEWPOINTS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA / OCMULGEE
RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL
COAST.
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. FAST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 700
MILLIBARS (AROUND 10,000 FEET) WILL CONTINUE, WITH A JET STREAK
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LIKELY CREATING A THICKENING
HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER OUR NEAR SHORE
WATERS. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD PREVENT
THE COASTAL TROUGH FROM GENERATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER, SIGNALING A WARMING TREND FOR OUR REGION
FOLLOWING ANOTHER FROSTY START TO THE DAY AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS.
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, WHILE LOCATIONS IN NORTH
CENTRAL FL CLIMB TO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL GENERATE A COOL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 THAT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60-65
DEGREE RANGE, AS OUR RECENT COLD SPELL HAS DROPPED SHELF WATERS OVER
THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
THICKENING MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MUCH WARMER ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 0.5 INCHES
THIS EVENING AND THEN REACHING THE 0.75 - 1 INCH RANGE TOWARDS
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY
CREATE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ACROSS OUR REGION, BUT
THICKENING CLOUD COVER ALOFT MAY PREVENT THIS FROM OCCURRING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S, EXCEPT LOWER 50S FOR COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A MUCH STRONGER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE
UPPER PLAINS REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS ARCTIC HIGH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE US ON THURSDAY AND THEN APPROACH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
INLAND SE GA LATE FRIDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD WITH FLOW SHIFTING FROM ESE
ON THURSDAY TO SSW ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
SEASONABLE AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE SE GA COAST TO AROUND
80 IN NORTH-CENTRAL FL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO UPPER 50S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BRINGING A
RETURN OF INLAND MORNING FOG.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL HELP TRIGGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
NEAR THE FL/GA STATE LINE LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND THEN MOVE EAST
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY. THESE TWO LOWS
WILL HELP LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER CENTRAL FL BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BUILDS INTO NE
FL AND POTENTIALLY SE GA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SE GA EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO NE FL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS AHEAD OF
THE GULF LOW BEGIN TO INCREASE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHEASTERLY. SHOWERS SHOULD FURTHER DEVELOP SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSES DOWN INTO THE
REGION FROM OUT OF THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SE GA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR WINTER WEATHER
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM. THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AND ULTIMATELY WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE
GULF LOW AND LOCATION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. BUT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WARM AIR BEING
USHERED IN FROM THE SSW TO PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN IN OUR AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS NOW INCREASING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS NE FL FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE
A LARGE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 50S TO LOW
80S. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL FL CONTINUING TO PRESS SOUTH.
OVERRUNNING CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION TO START THE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FREEZE AND A HARD FREEZE, FOR
WELL INLAND ZONES, LOOKS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT. TUESDAY, MOSTLY CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BUT CHILLY AND DRY AIR AND ANOTHER FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. PERIODS
OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT SSI AND SGJ WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS
TOWARDS 13Z. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH WINDS THEN SHIFTING
TO NORTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 15Z.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARDS 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS, WHILE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING ITS AXIS SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK
AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
OVERSPREAD OUR LOCAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR OUR
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE THURSDAY
NE FL MODERATE THURSDAY
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY SHIFTING WINDS
TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY. LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN POOR DISPERSIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BUT
GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS IN NORTH-CENTRAL
FL TODAY. ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE MIXING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE WEEK BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL CAUSE FAIR TO POOR DISPERSIONS
WITH POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FREEZING AND FROST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. PATCHY INLAND FOG POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 42 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 60 47 65 52 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 66 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 66 53 70 54 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 69 49 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 71 50 77 52 / 0 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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