456
FXUS62 KJAX 212308
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
608 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL WATERS FROM
SATURDAY
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING NEXT
- SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A PERSISTENT BUT WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GA AND SC AREA REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN
OFFSHORE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH, NOTED IN LATEST NWP GUIDANCE AND
ASCAT IMAGERY, HAS DEVELOPED AND IS KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS UNDER MOSTLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT ABOUT 8-15 MPH WHILE
INLAND AREAS WILL BE MORE EASTERLY. THE NORTHEAST FLOW IS SHALLOW
WITH NAM SOUNDINGS AND JAX VWP SHOWING A SOUTHEAST WIND AT ABOUT
2000 FT. WITH THE PREVAILING DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOW LEVELS,
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THE
ADVECTION OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREAS REST OF THE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WHILE THICKENING CLOUDS ANTICIPATED. A WARMING TREND
TODAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70, WARMEST OVER THE
SOUTH ZONES WHERE MORE SUN IS NOTED. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS, NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT, IN THE MIN TEMPS
IN THE 40S, BUT AROUND 50 OR LOWER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST AND OVER
PARTS OF ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. THERE IS SOME LOW POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT, GIVEN SOME LIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS, AND SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE PATCHY FOG FOR EASTERN ZONES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST, THOUGH STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING OVER INTERIOR GA, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WEAKENING FLOW AND WARMING TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GENERALLY LOW TO MID
70S EXPECTED THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE
COAST, FOLLOWED BY MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
BY THE COAST ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT STARTS TO DROP
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND IT AND TOWARDS THE REGION COME SATURDAY MORNING.
SIMILARLY, THERE IS ABOUT A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA AND TOWARDS I-10 ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES/POPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL BE
EXPECTED EACH MORNING, WITH 50S MAKING THEIR WAY FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST FOR SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DESPITE
SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO RETURN FOG POTENTIAL FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO SATURDAY WHEN THE FLOW STARTS TO
INCREASE WITH THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS A
COMPLEX AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST US.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO SETTLE NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
MAKE A PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. THIS AIRMASS WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH HOWEVER DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ZONAL FLOW, MAINLY NORTH OF I-10. THE
FORECAST GETS TRICKER FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT MORE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A COLD AIR DAMMING TYPE OF
SURFACE SETUP AS SURFACE RIDGING TRIES TO HANG TOUGH DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE MAIN QUESTION IS
WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE,
AND HOW MUCH IT "HANGS ON" FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRIES TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. TRENDS IN GUIDANCE
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SUPPORTING MORE OF A WARM SECTOR TYPE OF SETUP
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA TO KEEP THE COLDER SURFACE TEMPS AND DRAINAGE FLOW CONFINED
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IF A MORE SOUTHERN SHIFT OCCURS
WITH THIS COLDER AIR AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS OVER THE COMING DAYS,
THEN THIS COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WELL INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME,
FREEZING RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY ABOUT 5-10% FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF US84 IN GA. WITH BOTH AND WARMER AND MORE MOIST TREND
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY, THIS ALSO WOULD
INTRODUCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT AHEAD OF THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT, MAINLY ON SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS AREA WOULD BE THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND TOWARDS I-75 IN FL WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE WOULD BE FROM
THE GULF. SEVERE ACTIVITY LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME, THOUGH WILL
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING DAYS.
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE CLASH OF AIRMASSES LIFTS NORTH AND
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY,
PROGRESSING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FULLY ON MONDAY WITH THE
RETURN OF MORE COOL AND DRY AIR AFTER A VERY WARM SEVERAL DAYS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY
MIDWEEK AND THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARDS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SETUP AND
"BATTLEGROUND" BETWEEN WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND THE
COLD SURGE FROM THE NORTH. ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS APPEARING MORE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST NORTHEAST FL FOR THE
WEEKEND, TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL TO POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW NORMAL
THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO THIS WEEKEND. CONSENSUS IS STRONGER
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS 00Z TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VERY LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER 3-5 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AROUND
5 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON 6-8 KNOTS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING ITS AXIS SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK
AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD OUR
LOCAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR OUR REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW THURSDAY
NE FL MODERATE THURSDAY
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHEASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW TO SUBSIDE, BUT ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS
FOR BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MILDER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS TO MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS
WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES BACK IN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY INLAND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 42 72 46 72 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 49 65 51 67 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 47 72 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 52 70 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 49 77 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 49 76 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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