333
FXUS62 KJAX 220754
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
254 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH RISK EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS BRIEFLY
STRENGTHEN.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD INLAND FREEZES LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE (1025 MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA.
WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FL.
OTHERWISE, A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WERE DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH BOUNDARIES SINKING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OZARKS, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS. ALOFT...A BROAD
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION, WHILE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM WAS TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH. A 140-KNOT JET STREAK
SITUATED AT 250 MILLIBARS (AROUND 35,000 FEET) WAS POSITIONED
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS
FEATURE MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE REVEALED A VERY DRY
AIR MASS BELOW 500 MILLIBARS (AROUND 20,000 FEET), WITH PWATS
ACROSS OUR REGION GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 0.5 - 0.75 INCH
RANGE. WHILE AREA RADARS ARE DETECTING RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA,
IT IS ALL EVAPORATING ON ITS WAY DOWNWARD THROUGH THAT DEEP DRY
LAYER BELOW 20,000 FEET (VIRGA). THICK HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD
COVER WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S AS OF 08Z.
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK ALOFT POSITIONED ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING, WITH
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE EXITING OUR REGION BY LATE
THIS MORNING. THICK HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE PREDAWN AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, AFTERNOON SUNSHINE,
AND A SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER
70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE, AND WEAK
COASTAL TROUGHING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I- 95. COOL SHELF WATERS
IN THE 50S AND THIS BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE
65-70 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
FAIR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING, AND PWATS INCREASING TO
THE 0.75 - 1 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
EARLY IN THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS, WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF OUR AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE LOW AND MID 50S FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE REGION RETREATS AS A COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE SE US GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING OVER INTERIOR GA, BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. THE FRONT SETTLES OVER CENTRAL FL SATURDAY MORNING AS
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS
AIRMASS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH HOWEVER DUE
TO THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ZONAL FLOW,
MAINLY NORTH OF I-10. A NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED WITH BRIEF COLD AIR ADVECTION. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW US ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL HELP TRIGGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF. THIS LOW
WILL TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL FL NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
RETURNING WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. INLAND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW AND DEVELOPING A ROBUST WARM SECTOR
ACROSS OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
THE COLDER SURFACE TEMPS AND DRAINAGE FLOW CONFINED WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR ZERO FOR THIS EVENT. SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE LOW ON SUNDAY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH AMPLE
GULF MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA. A COLD
AND DRY AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND SETTLES IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL MULTIPLE
FREEZE EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WELL
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH QUICKLY DROP TO BELOW SEASONABLE FOR NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. OVERCAST
HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS, WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
SHORTLY AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF THIS TAF PERIOD, OR AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 5
KNOTS AT SGJ OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AFTER 13Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 16Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TOWARDS 19Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER COASTAL GEORGIA WILL WEAKEN TODAY
AS A A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MEANWHILE, COASTAL TROUGHING SITUATED OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY DECREASING SPEEDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD, CROSSING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BRIEFLY SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A WINTER STORM DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD, LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS
OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WHILE STRENGTHENING FURTHER ON MONDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL BEACHES - MODERATE
THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH ON SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DISPERSIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. LIGHT SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR
TO FAIR DISPERSIONS WITH AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS EXPECTED TODAY
AND FRIDAY DESPITE ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEGINNING SATURDAY AND SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN HIGH DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES BACK IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 44 72 49 / 0 0 10 10
SSI 66 49 68 50 / 0 0 0 20
JAX 73 47 77 54 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 70 54 74 56 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 77 50 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 77 51 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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