067
FXUS62 KJAX 230546
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1246 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
RISK EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
- WIDESPREAD INLAND FREEZES LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT
- SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE REGION
RETREATS AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SE GA TODAY. BRIEF COOL AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN KEEPING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S. WARMING TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO COASTAL SE GA AND NE FL. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NORTH-CENTRAL FL. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST, THE ST. JOHNS RIVER, AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. A WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS,
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WILL
TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 1015 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 2025 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA AND
PORTIONS OF THE FIRST COAST. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL USHER SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR INTO COASTAL GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INLAND FLORIDA, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN LOW
(1030%), PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-10 AND ALONG THE COAST, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD,
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SOUTH OF I-10 AND FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 50S NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SUNDAY: RECORD WARMTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BY SUNDAY, THE REGION WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION, PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR-RECORD LEVELS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 70S TO MID
80S AREA-WIDE. RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 25TH AT KJAX (83F, 2023),
KGNV (85F, 1950), AND KCRG (81F, 2023) MAY BE APPROACHED OR
CHALLENGED.
A LARGE AND COMPLEX WINTER STORM SYSTEM, HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WPC
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION, WILL IMPACT AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE,
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY, BECOMING MORE
PRONOUNCED SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
THE SPC OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
INLAND GEORGIA, AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MONDAY: COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND ARCTIC AIR INVASION
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S NORTH OF I-10 AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S SOUTH OF I-10. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY BEFORE MUCH DRIER AND COLDER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST AND SOUTH OF I-10.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: PROLONGED BITTER COLD AND
FREEZES ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES, USHERING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL-BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS
DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD INLAND HARD
FREEZES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH HARD FREEZES LIKELY
INLAND AND LIGHT FREEZES POSSIBLE EVEN NEAR THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
LOWER 20S NEAR THE COAST. PATCHY FROST IS ALSO EXPECTED.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED, GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE GA COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE AREA TAF SITES INTO THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR
BETWEEN 08-14Z. FOG SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 14-16Z. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. AN ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT INLAND WITH EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL AND DUVAL TAF SITES AFTER
16Z.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC. PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VISIBILITY OF 1 NM OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING INTO POTENTIALLY EARLY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND PUSH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD, CROSSING OUR LOCAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS BRIEFLY SURGE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A WINTER STORM DEVELOPING OVER
TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST, LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS
OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN BUILD INTO THE OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTH WHILE STRENGTHENING FURTHER ON MONDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE SATURDAY
NE FL MODERATE SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
LOW DISPERSION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH-PRESSURE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
PERSIST, RESULTING IN POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS DESPITE ELEVATED
MIXING HEIGHTS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT, THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD INTO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS INLAND
GEORGIA. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH DISPERSION ON MONDAY WITH A BREEZY NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY INLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG MAY
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING. FROST
AND FREEZE POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH...
BELOW ARE RECORDS FOR CLIMATE SITES AND YEAR IN WHICH THEY OCCURRED.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 25TH:
KJAX: 83/2023
KGNV: 85/1950
KCRG: 81/2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 47 54 43 / 10 10 20 20
SSI 66 50 58 50 / 0 10 30 30
JAX 74 51 63 52 / 0 0 20 10
SGJ 73 55 68 57 / 0 0 20 10
GNV 78 54 72 56 / 0 10 10 0
OCF 79 55 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ472-474.
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