422
FXUS62 KJAX 060517
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1217 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING SOUTHEAST GA, INLAND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. WIND CHILL VALUES 20S THIS
MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MOST LOCAL WATERS.
GALE WATCH TONIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS -
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDS LOCALLY WITH LOCAL WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY
- LIGHT FREEZE & FROST LATE SAT NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS WEST OF
I-95
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TEMPERATURES WERE ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT INLAND FREEZE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE 25-30 DEG RANGE AROUND
SUNRISE, STILL JUST ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST FL.
TODAY, SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL UNDER INCREASINGLY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING 'DRY' COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO BUT STILL JUST SHY OF AVERAGE DAILY HIGHS. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BE
A CONCERN FOR LOCAL WILDFIRES.
TONIGHT, THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LESS SOME PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD THE COAST AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST
FL TRAILING THE FRONT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT,
CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 30S FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING TO THE UPPER 30S FOR NORTHEAST FL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION
ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS BUILDING FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA, RESULTING IN A LESS
NORTHERLY AND MORE WESTERLY PREVAILING FLOW BEFORE NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60 FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MIN TEMPS IN UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON
SATURDAY LIFTING TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR INLAND AREAS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING AND FROST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX AND MIN TEMPS RISING TO BE NEAR
AND ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AT SGJ OVER THE NEXT HOUR, THEN
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WNW WINDS 4-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
STRONGER SPEEDS TOWARD THE COAST. AFTER 14Z, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS FURTHER
INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 13-16 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS SUBSIDE 00-06Z BUT REMAIN ELEVATED 10-12
KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS AT THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS, BUT VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING PREVAILING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
A PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER WATERS, AND A
GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, THEN TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK IN THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WITH
SURF/BREAKERS ONLY IN THE 1-3 FT TODAY AND SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
- MINRH VALUES IN THE 30S TODAY
- MINRH VALUES IN 20S AND 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TODAY AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE DANGER TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CONDITIONS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING WITH THE COMING WEEK AS THE PREVAILING
FLOW SHIFTS TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE GULF.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: EARLY MORNING PATCHY FROST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH INLAND FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 38 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 60 44 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 64 42 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 62 46 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 64 42 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 62 43 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-120-136-137-140-220-232-236-237-240-322-340-
422-425-522.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ452-
454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page