852
FXUS62 KJAX 061850
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
150 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM TODAY. AREAS IMPACTED: PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL FL, GENERALLY FOR
- LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 & PORTIONS OF WARE & CHARLTON
COUNTIES. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25% EXTENDING TO
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON
- MARINE HAZARDS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY. GALE WATCH
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT
- LIGHT FREEZE & FROST SATURDAY NIGHT & EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TEMPERATURES WERE ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT INLAND FREEZE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE 25-30 DEG RANGE AROUND
SUNRISE, STILL JUST ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST FL.
TODAY, SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL UNDER INCREASINGLY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING 'DRY' COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO BUT STILL JUST SHY OF AVERAGE DAILY HIGHS. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BE
A CONCERN FOR LOCAL WILDFIRES.
TONIGHT, THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LESS SOME PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD THE COAST AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST
FL TRAILING THE FRONT. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT,
CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 30S FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING TO THE UPPER 30S FOR NORTHEAST FL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY PREDAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. COOL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE, WITH GUSTS FROM 15 MPH TO 17 MPH,
DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ON SUNDAY BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INLAND SE GA, THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY, AND
INLAND LOCATIONS OF NE FL WEST OF JACKSONVILLE TOWARDS THE I-75
CORRIDOR, ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A FREEZE WATCH AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD FROST WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AS WINDS BECOME NEAR CALM.
"WARMER" TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HELPING TO KEEP LOWS PRIMARILY ABOVE
FREEZING, BUT STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND
THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WARMER PATTERN ARRIVES NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDWEEK. DON'T
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FOR THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT AWAY TO THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AND ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY A WIND
TIMING FORECAST IN THE TAFS. WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BACK MORE W
THROUGH 14-15Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS AND GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE 16-19Z WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 13-16 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS SUBSIDE 00-
06Z BUT REMAIN ELEVATED 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS AT THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT TO NW TRAILING THE FROPA
AFTER 06Z TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY. A FEW MID AND LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES.
MARINE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND SUNSET FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, FOLLOWED BY FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, CAUTION
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH SPEEDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY SUNSET. WINDS
WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND
SEAS TO DIMINISH. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK IN THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WITH
SURF/BREAKERS ONLY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
- CRITICAL MINRH VALUES TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF NE FL AND SE GA
- MINRH VALUES IN 20S AND 30S THIS WEEKEND
A RED FLAG WARNING IS EFFECT UNTIL 6PM THIS EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA EAST OF I-75 TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND FOR PORTIONS OF WARE AND CHARLTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS, GUSTS FROM 25 MPH TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE, COMBINED WITH SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
CRITICAL RH VALUES PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NOT IN THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. ADDITIONALLY,
ELEVATED DISPERSIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WINDS AND GUSTS BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING INTO THE COMING WEEK AS THE
PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE GULF.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: INLAND FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 38 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 42 58 38 56 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 41 62 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 45 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 44 65 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 44 66 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-322-
422-425-522.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ023-024-
030-031-038-124-125-132-137-138-140-225-232-233-237-325-
333-425-433-533-633.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ470-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page