951
FXUS62 KJAX 070653
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
153 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INLAND NORTHEAST FL TODAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY. GALE WARNING OUTER WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING.
- LIGHT INLAND FREEZE & WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT & EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AFTER AN EARLY MORNING 'DRY' COLD FRONT PASSAGE, SUNNY SKIES
PREVAIL TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWEST THEN NORTH
OF THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. BREEZY WNW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GUST
NEAR 20-25 KTS AT TIMES, THEN WINDS SUBSIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS NE FL.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
EXTENDS AN AXIS SOUTHWARD ACROSS GA WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM,
WHILE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR, CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL BRING AN INLAND FREEZE AND
WIDESPREAD FROST TO SOUTHEAST GA AND TO LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL. WE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
MAINTAINED A FREEZE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE FOR A MARGINAL FREEZE
EVENT IN WHICH CASE AN UPGRADE TO THE FREEZE WATCH WOULD OCCUR WITH
LOWS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR FOR A POSSIBLE FROST ADVISORY IN LIEU
OF THE FREEZE WARNING. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND A NEAR CALM
BUT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOWS INLAND, INCORPORATED SOME OF THE NBM
25TH AND 50TH PERCENTILE VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT, WHICH STILL KEPT
LOCATIONS INCLUDING GAINESVILLE AND OCALA ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS
IN THE 33-35 DEG RANGE. REGARDLESS OF REACHING FREEZING, WIDESPREAD
INLAND FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, AND PROTECTIVE ACTIONS TO
CROPS, PLANTS, PETS AND LIVESTOCK ARE ADVISED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS
FROM NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY TO EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL A BIT
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A WEAK AND ALMOST VARIABLE WIND INLAND, AND
MORE ONSHORE TOWARDS THE COAST WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING:
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP LOWS SLIGHTLY MILDER SUNDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
LIKELY OVER INLAND AREAS BY MONDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THOSE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO KICK LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE MORE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION, INDUCING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE MILDER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR MOST (EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE). MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY WILL MODERATE A BIT ACCORDINGLY, WITH WIDESPREAD 40S
FORECAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRY AND GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FURTHER EAST OF THE
AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS A BIT FURTHER ALOFT. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
ONWARD, CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL LOWER THAN NORMAL AS GUIDANCE VARIES
ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN AND SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IMPACT THE
REGION. AS OF NOW, LOOKING LIKE THE FIRST AND MOST LIKELY WEAKER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AROUND THIS
TIME FRAME BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY LATE WEEK.
THOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN, APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND MOSTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WSW TO WNW
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH GUSTS 15-
20 KTS AT TIMES INLAND TO 20-25 KTS AT THE COAST. WINDS SUBSIDE INTO
THE AFTERNOON INLAND TO 5-10 KT RANGE WITH COASTAL WINDS BECOMING NE
8-12 KTS THROUGH 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.
MARINE
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT, THEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION INTO MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHERLY
WINDS TODAY THEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- ELVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY INLAND NORTHEAST FL DUE TO MODERATE
FIRE DANGER, LOW RHS, AND EXTREME DROUGHT
- PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY
- AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS OVER NORTHEAST FL SUNDAY
A DRY FRONT WILL SKIM THE AREA THIS MORNING, MAINTAINING FAIR AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISPERSIONS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE GOOD RANGE TODAY, WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGH
DISPERSIONS ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, ABATING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
RESULT IN FAIR DISPERSIONS AT BEST ON SUNDAY. THOUGH MOSTLY ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES, MINRH VALUES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE 25-35% RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WHICH UNFORTUNATELY WILL NOT BRING ANY RELIEF TO THE
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS RH VALUES
WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL WILL NOT BE UNTIL AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: INLAND FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 30 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 58 37 55 43 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 63 33 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 60 39 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 66 32 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 67 33 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ021-030-031-035-136-232-236-422-522.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ023-024-120-
220-322-425.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ450-
452-454.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ470-472-474.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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