894
FXUS62 KJAX 071829
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
129 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY INLAND NE FL DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITY, EXTREME DROUGHT & CRITICALLY DRY FUELS
- LIGHT FREEZE & FROST TONIGHT & EARLY SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED OVER INLAND SE GA AND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WITH A
FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR NE FL LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-
75 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AREAS TO WIDESPREAD
FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DUE TO WINDS BECOMING NEAR CALM IN
ADDITION TO THE SUB TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FREEZE/FROST WARNED AREAS, WITH PATCHY FROST ALONG NORTH CENTRAL
FL COUNTIES AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY, BUT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND
1029 MB OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH
AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY, BUT INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE CLEAR SKIES BY MONDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE
PERIOD. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY (WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL), AND
THEN TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, COLD
LOWS STILL ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
INLAND AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST INLAND. LOWS MODERATE TO THE 40S ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHALLOW FOG LOOKS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME
AND THEREFORE VERY LIMITED TO WELL INLAND AREAS AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THEN PASSES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE, BUT WITH WEAK DYNAMICS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING, NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN AMOUNTS, LIKELY UNDER 0.15
INCHES. EVEN LOWER CHANCES AROUND 10-20 PERCENT FOR NORTHEAST
FL ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF, CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE NOTED FROM GUIDANCE A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER PART OF THE FORECAST,
BRINGING ALONG WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THE
FRONT MOVING INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WITH THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AND CERTAINLY
ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL OVER NORTH FL AND A
FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STILL SOME MODERATE TO
HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS AS MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON STRENGTH,
TIMING, AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AROUND UPPER 70S, AND THEN MODERATE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT CERTAINLY SATURDAY TEMP
TRENDS DOWNWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU
AND FRI, WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT REACH 80-82 DEG, MAINLY
OVER NORTHEAST FL. REGARDING RAINFALL, IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES OVER
MOST AREAS, AND THE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS VERY MINIMAL OWING TO
WEAK INSTABILITY (CAPE LESS THAN 300 J/KG).
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INLAND SITES
AROUND 5-10 KT RANGE, WHILE COASTAL SITES SHIFT TO BECOME NE AND
RANGE AROUND 8-12 KTS THROUGH 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE REGION. AFTER 00Z, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS < 3 KTS INLAND
THROUGH 12Z WITH ENE TO NNE AT THE COAST < 7 KTS.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS DROP TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO SUNDAY, BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AT 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE WATERS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MID- WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY THEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER INLAND NORTHEAST FL REST OF TODAY
- AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- LOW MIN RH VALUES INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY
OCCASIONAL BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED REST OF TODAY
WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE, AND 33-45
PERCENT COASTAL AREAS.
ON SUNDAY, GENERALLY WEAKER SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WHICH ALSO
LEADS TO LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION. STILL SOME CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY INLAND AS WELL, GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY
301.
OUTLOOK: PREVAILING DRY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY TO TUESDAY WITH
POCKETS OF MIN RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT INLAND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
BEGINS TO RECOVER FURTHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: INLAND FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 32 61 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 39 55 44 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 33 63 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 39 63 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 37 68 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 37 68 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ021-030-031-
035-136-232-236-422-522.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ023-024-120-
220-322-425.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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