451
FXUS62 KJAX 081000
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LIGHT FREEZE & FROST FOR INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING
- PATCHY DENSE FOG NORTH-CENTRAL FL EARLY MONDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT NNW DRAINAGE FLOW AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS INLAND
WAS ENABLING TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 TO 40S ALONG THE COAST AND TOWARD NORTH-
CENTRAL FL. STILL EXPECT A FREEZE FOR MUCH OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FL INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WITH FROST FOR MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE.
WEAKER WINDS TODAY AND A A LITTLE WARMER FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WITH A
CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST, NNW THIS MORNING BECOME NNE TO ENE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. AS INLAND HIGHS WARM INTO THE 60S, THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES CHILLY IN THE
50S, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF MAYPORT TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE COAST.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EVENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS, DRY LOW LEVELS AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ENABLE TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR INLAND AREAS TO THE LOW 40S
TOWARD THE COAST. NBM 25-75TH PERCENTILE RANGE KEEPS LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS INLAND SE GA. WITH THE PASSING CLOUDS, FROST
WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO FORM TONIGHT, HOWEVER, FOG WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. INCLUDES AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
INCLUDING SOUTHERN DUVAL, CLAY, ST. JOHNS, FLAGLER, PUTNAM AND
MARION COUNTIES. ANY FOG COMBINED WITH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES
COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND BUILD OFF THE FL COAST BY TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND
DEVELOP A LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO SEASONABLE. HOWEVER, A WEAK ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
WILL SHIFT INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING COASTAL AREAS RELATIVELY
COOL. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST TO
THE LOW 70S INLAND. TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO ABOVE SEASONABLE ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO SE GA. A COLD FRONT THEN SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SE US WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE WILL THEN MOVE
ALONG THE GULF STATES THIS WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW
THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE. FOR NOW, HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND
THEN INCREASING CHANCES AREA-WIDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST
CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL BE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW USHERS IN GULF AIR/MOISTURE TO THE
AREA.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NNW WINDS 5-8 KTS AROUND 12Z WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER NNE THROUGH 16Z THEN BECOME MORE NE THROUGH 00Z,
WITH WINDS 5-10 KTS INLAND TO 8-12 KTS AT THE COAST WITH COASTAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 15 KTS AT TIMES.
AFTER 00Z, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS < 5 KTS DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY MORNING, NBH PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR GROUND FOG
INCREASED BETWEEN 15-20% AT VQQ, GNV AND SSI. ADVERTISED PREVAILING
5SM BR AFTER 07Z AT GNV AND VQQ AND KEPT SSI AT 6SM BR. MVFR FOG
PROBABILITIES CONTINUED BETWEEN 10-15% AT SGJ, CRG AND JAX AND
ADVERTISED 6SM BR AT SGJ AND CRG WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE AND SOME SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL TEMPER RADIATION FOG EXTENT THROUGH 12Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY INTO
MONDAY. A LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL ARRIVES TODAY WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL AND LINGER OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY,
THEN MORPH INTO A LIFTING WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND MONDAY WITH NNE TO
ENE WINDS AND ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS WITH BUILDING EASTERLY SWELLS
WITH PERIODS OF 10-11 SECONDS.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY AND MONDAY
- LOW MIN RH VALUES INLAND TODAY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INLAND WILL LEAD TO POOR TO LOW DISPERSIONS
TODAY. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS DECREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LEADING TO POOR TO LOW DISPERSIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO COASTAL
AREAS TODAY BUT CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE MID-UPPER 20S
EXPECTED INLAND, GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED UNTIL MID-LATE WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: INLAND FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IF IT MIXES WITH NEARBY WILDFIRE
SMOKE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 36 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 54 42 61 46 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 63 40 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 62 44 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 69 38 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 69 39 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-030-031-
035-136-232-236-422-522.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ023-024-120-
220-322-425.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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