578
FXUS62 KJAX 082332
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
632 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE NORTH-CENTRAL FL EARLY
- MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR AREA BEACHES TODAY AND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL STILL LEAD TO NICE
BOUNCE BACK OF TEMPS INTO THE 60S OVER INLAND AREAS, WHILE A SURGE
OF NE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S FROM JAX NORTHWARD ALONG THE SE GA COASTAL
AREAS.
TONIGHT: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT
THE SURFACE WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BUILD MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEAR CALM WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
CRASH AFTER SUNSET, WITH LIKELY MIN TEMPS OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, THEN STEADY OR EVEN SOME SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPS TOWARDS
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT INLAND
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S, BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT FROST
FORMATION, SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS
IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN TO THE SOUTH OF JAX, MAINLY BETWEEN
THE I-95 AND US 301 CORRIDORS. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG
FORMATION, BUT SUPER FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE IF THIS DEVELOPS NEAR
ANY LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE IN AREAS ACROSS NE FL.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL FL
BY MONDAY EVENING. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA THEN QUICKLY
MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A
1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VA/NC WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH A
WEAK, DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA WATERS,
POSSIBLY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST, BUT THERE'S LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY MONDAY THEN CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ANOTHER BATCH OF SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES ON TUESDAY AS THE SECOND AREA OF
SHORTWAVES MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S., WITH MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATE. TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS, BUT NO WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO SE GA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SE US WEDNESDAY, MOVING INTO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER CONSENSUS OF GFS AND ECMWF. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY AND TENDING TO WASH OUT, LOOSING
SOME DEFINITION. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY
WITH POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT PER MODEL BLEND. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES. COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE WARM FRONT AND LIGHT SFC WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW
THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL WAVE. FOR NOW, HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES AREA-WIDE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL BE THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS NOTED IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, BUT A THUNDERSTORM MENTION COULD BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF AROUND 300 J/KG OR LESS. ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW USHERS IN
GULF AIR/MOISTURE TO THE AREA. TEMP FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND IS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT CURRENTLY WE SHOW
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
VFR WITH SUBSIDING WINDS THIS EVENING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TODAY HAS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR SGJ, DUVAL TAF SITES AND POTENTIALLY GNV.
EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THESES SITES BETWEEN 08-13Z WITH TEMPOS
IN PLACE FOR IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. SUPER FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE IF THIS DEVELOPS NEAR ANY LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE IN
AREAS ACROSS NE FL. MAINLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ON MONDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED COMBINED
SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND LINGER
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY, THEN MORPH INTO A LIFTING WARM
FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND MONDAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS WITH BUILDING EASTERLY
SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 10-12 SECONDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURF/BREAKERS OF 3-4 FT, OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY AND MONDAY
- LOW MIN RH VALUES INLAND TODAY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
REST OF TODAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INLAND WILL LEAD TO POOR TO
LOW DISPERSIONS WITH LOW MIN RH VALUES INLAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.
ON MONDAY, SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS AGAIN REMAIN WEAK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LEADING TO LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE TO COASTAL AREAS TODAY BUT CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 PERCENT EXPECTED INLAND,
GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY WHEN MID RH VALUES ARE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED UNTIL
MID-LATE WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREA OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY IF IT MIXES WITH NEARBY WILDFIRE SMOKE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 36 68 41 74 / 10 10 0 0
SSI 42 61 45 69 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 40 68 41 78 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 43 67 44 73 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 39 73 39 78 / 10 10 0 0
OCF 38 73 39 78 / 10 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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