261
FXUS62 KJAX 090657
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
157 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
MORNING ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. TUESDAY MORNING INLAND NE FL
- LOCALIZED SUPERFOG WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY RISK AT NIGHT
NEAR LOCAL WILDFIRES
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR AREA BEACHES THROUGH
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG, INCLUDING SEA FOG, AS WELL AS SUPERFOG RISK NEAR
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
ALREADY SEEING SOME OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING OF FOG NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW ADVECTED SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE
YESTERDAY. THROUGH DAYBREAK, ANTICIPATE AREAS TO PATCHY FOG MAINLY
IMPACTING COASTAL LOCATIONS TOWARD HIGHWAY 301. THE COMBINATION OF
FOG AND SMOKE FROM SMOLDERING WILDFIRES COULD ALSO CREATE LOCALLY
DENSE SUPERFOG. WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM
THE NW THROUGH DAYBREAK, DENSE FOG (< 1/4 MILE) WILL LIKELY BE
INTERMITTENT IN NATURE. MIN TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH LOWS ON TRACK TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS INLAND AREAS TO LOWER 40S TOWARD THE COAST.
TODAY, WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY UNDER PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN US. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS FARTHER
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
ENABLE WEAK SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FL PENINSULA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF A MORE PERSISTENT AND
EXPANSIVE FOG BANK DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE GULF COAST AND THE HIGHWAY
301 CORRIDOR OF NE FL UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL RAISE DEW
POINTS THROUGH THE DAY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND SUPERFOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, BUT LOWS TREND A LITTLE WARMER FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND TO THE MID 40S TOWARD THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FL PENINSULA AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF.
DEVELOPING DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND MAINTAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST TO THE MID-UPPER 70S INLAND. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE,
PATCHY INLAND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON
WEDNESDAY, A PARADE OF UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE US. THIS
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY SE GA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DIFFUSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON THURSDAY WILL
MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES
AND THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL WAVE. FOR NOW, HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY THEN INCREASING CHANCES AREA-
WIDE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL BE
SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS NOTED
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, BUT A THUNDERSTORM MENTION COULD BE
NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS MORE THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 300 J/KG OR LESS. ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
USHERS IN GULF AIR/MOISTURE TO THE AREA. TEMP FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT
CURRENTLY WE SHOW SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH 12-13Z DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH
MVFR TO IFR ADVERTISED WITH LIFR AT VQQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS <
6 KTS THROUGH 12Z UNDER SCT-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER 12Z, VFR
CONDITIONS AS ENE WINDS DEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS WITH WSW AT GNV
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND NEAR CALM
ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS NEAR GNV AND VQQ
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY MORNING. NOTE THAT SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SEA
FOG DEVELOPING TODAY AS TEMPERATURES, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR EQUAL VALUES, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS YET.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH BREAKS DOWN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. A LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND LINGER OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF SURGE IN NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOCAL
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MORPH INTO A LIFTING WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
AND ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF 10-
12 SECONDS. ELEVATED SURF/BREAKERS OF 3-4 FT, OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5
FEET AT TIMES, AT NE FL BEACHES TODAY. TUESDAY OFFSHORE, WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP WITH A CONTINUATION OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS, CONTINUING
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT LOCAL BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY
- HIGH DISPERSIONS INLAND SE GA TUESDAY
- LOCALIZED SUPERFOG RISK THIS MORNING & TONIGHT
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS REMAIN WEAK TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LEADING TO POOR TO LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
COASTAL AREAS TODAY BUT CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW-UPPER
20S ARE EXPECTED INLAND, GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY
301. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY WHEN MIN RH VALUES
ARE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. WEAK ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY LEADING TO GOOD AND POTENTIALLY HIGH DISPERSIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED UNTIL MID-LATE WEEK WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS
INLAND NE FL AND SE GA TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IF IT MIXES WITH
NEARBY WILDFIRE SMOKE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 68 40 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 61 44 69 53 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 70 40 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 67 44 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 73 38 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 74 37 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page