555
FXUS62 KJAX 091700
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MORNING & LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT/TUESDAY. TUESDAY MORNING INLAND
NE FL. SUPERFOG RISK NEAR WILDFIRES
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS SOME
PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INLAND, WHILE A WEAK
SEA BREEZE AROUND 10 MPH DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS INLAND NE FL, WHILE THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS TO THE EAST OF
I-95 TO THE BEACHES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 60S DUE TO THE WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE FL PENINSULA AND INTRODUCES A LIGHT W-SW FLOW, BUT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND VERY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS EXPECT
LOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW NBM GUIDANCE LEVELS WITH LOWS AROUND 40F
INLAND (UPPER 30S IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS), WHILE ATLANTIC
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE AGAIN, MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS AND ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLAND NE FL WHERE SOME INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PUSH INLAND IN THE DEVELOPING LIGHT W-SW STEERING FLOW OFF THE
GULF. ALSO, SOME PATCHY SEA FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS AND I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT OVERALL DEW POINT TEMPS REMAIN LOWER
THAN SEA SURFACE TEMPS, SO NOT A GREAT SET-UP FOR SEA FOG. THE
THREAT FOR SUPER FOG REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR ANY WILDFIRE LOCATIONS,
ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE INLAND AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL DENSE FOG ADVISORY CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES
ALONG WITH A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD AIR BOUNDARY FROM OUT OF THE
NORTH, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PROBABILITIES DECREASING
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DRAGS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM OUT OF THE WEST WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING WINDS
BUILDING IN FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND, THE MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT AND ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND TO A LESSER EXTANT INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR AND ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
OVERALL VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING ONSHORE AT COASTAL TAF
SITES. FOG CHANCES OVERALL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE TONIGHT WITH ONLY
20-30% CHANCES OF MVFR VSBYS, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS
ARE SUGGESTING HIGHER CHANCES OF IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SEA FOG AT SSI
LATE TONIGHT. THE MODELS OVER DID THE FOG FORECAST FOR LAST NIGHT,
SO WILL KEEP ONLY MVFR VSBYS IN AT TAF SITES IN THE 08-12Z TIME
FRAME WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS BY THE 16-18Z TIME
FRAME ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH BREAKS DOWN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. A LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND LINGER OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF SURGE IN NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LOCAL
WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MORPH INTO A LIFTING WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 12-14 SECONDS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SURF/BREAKERS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE AT LOCAL BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS REMAIN WEAK TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION LEADING TO POOR TO LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
COASTAL AREAS TODAY BUT CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW-UPPER
20S ARE EXPECTED INLAND, GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY
301. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY WHEN MIN RH VALUES
ARE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. WEAK ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY LEADING TO GOOD AND POTENTIALLY HIGH DISPERSIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED UNTIL MID-LATE WEEK WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NE FL AND SE GA TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DENSER
FOG OCCURRING IN PROXIMITY WITH WILDFIRE SMOKE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 40 75 53 73 / 0 0 0 40
SSI 45 70 53 68 / 10 0 0 30
JAX 40 79 50 75 / 10 0 0 20
SGJ 42 75 50 73 / 10 0 0 10
GNV 39 78 48 77 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 38 78 47 76 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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