538
FXUS62 KJAX 101128
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
628 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INLAND ALONG/WEST OF I-75 &
SEA FOG ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST. LOCALIZED SUPERFOG RISK NEAR
WILDFIRES
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS &
WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CONDITIONS ARE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITS TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST. SOME POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS LINGERING THE FOG WILL BE
SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WEST OF I-75 AS SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL FEED IN FROM THE GULF WHERE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS ELSEWHERE LOWERING TO THE LOW 40S BY
SUNRISE. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND SUPERFOG WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN
THESE AREAS NEAR WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. BRUNSWICK WILL SEE PATCHY TO
AREAS OF SEA FOG DRIFT ONSHORE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.
TODAY, PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL LIFT BY 8AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH TO PREVAIL UNDER
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH CIRRUS ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OZARKS AND TN RIVER
VALLEY. HIGHS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AWAY FROM THE COAST INTO
THE UPPER 70S OVER NE FL AND THE MID/UPPER 70S OVER SE GA WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO BRUNSWICK
AND LOW 70S SOUTH TO THE FLAGLER COAST.
TONIGHT, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GA INTO AREAS NORTH OF
US82. THE CLOUDS, SHOWERS, AND WINDS ELEVATING TO 8-12 MPH OVER
THESE SE GA LOCATIONS WILL KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID 50S
WHILE LIGHT WINDS AND MORE CLEARING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S SOUTH OF I-10 OVER NE FL WITH LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ON WEDNESDAY, A PARADE OF UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SE
US. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT
MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10. LINGERING DRY AIR WILL GENERALLY
KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT. WARM WSW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. THE COLD
FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO CENTRAL FL ON THURSDAY. BRIEF COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY DEVELOPING NE FLOW. THIS WILL CREATE A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE SE GA COAST
TO THE UPPER 70S IN NORTH-CENTRAL FL. THE DIFFUSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THEN LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD UP THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A COUPLE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY ACROSS SE GA. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW US DEEPENS AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW AS IT
TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL LIFT THE WARM FRONT NORTH OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SHOWERS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONTINUED SSW FLOW WILL USHER
IN WARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF TO THE AREA MAINTAINING ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY.
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MVFR TO IFR FOG AT VQQ UNTIL 14Z,
BUT OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AND
PRODUCE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 6-8 KNOTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ATLANTIC SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO TURN WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY 8-10 KNOTS AT SSI AND SGJ. HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUMING AT ALL SITES
AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z, THEN HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST SKIES ARRIVE
AFTER 06Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT MORE EAST OF
THE WATERS TODAY WITH A LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL KEEPING ELEVATED
SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL
STALL AND LINGER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER LOCAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MORPH INTO A LIFTING WARM FRONT
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AS EASTERLY
SWELLS WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 11-13 SECONDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SURF/BREAKERS INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE AT LOCAL BEACHES. EASTERLY
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY
DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST DUE TO SURF/BREAKERS
OF 3-4 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH CRITICALLY LOW MIN RHS IN
THE 20S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
INCREASES TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS WITH PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE INFLUX
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INCREASING RHS INTO 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR THURSDAY RESULTING IN POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NE FL AND SE GA THIS MORNING, WITH DENSER FOG
OCCURRING IN PROXIMITY WITH WILDFIRE SMOKE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 53 76 46 / 0 20 40 10
SSI 70 52 71 50 / 0 10 30 30
JAX 78 50 76 51 / 0 10 20 10
SGJ 75 51 74 54 / 0 10 10 10
GNV 78 47 76 52 / 0 0 10 10
OCF 77 46 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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